Wheat Prices in Kazakhstan Are Rising, While Global Prices Remain Under Pressure: Hold or Sell?

The grain market in Kazakhstan has seen a surge in activity at the turn of February and March, driven by rising prices for high-quality wheat. According to the research bureau "Grain and Oilseeds. Kazakhstan," wheat of the 3rd class with gluten content of 28% and above has increased in price to an average of 125 tenge per kilogram (+15 tenge over the past week). Experts recommend holding off on sales, anticipating a price target of around 145 tenge.
Meanwhile, lower-quality wheat (with gluten content up to 25% and below) has remained stable at around 80 tenge per kilogram. Analysts suggest selling it "as needed" rather than waiting for sharp price hikes.
In the oilseed segment, sunflower prices have risen by 7 tenge, averaging over 170 tenge. In contrast, flax has dropped by more than 10 tenge (down to 220), but analysts recommend holding it in anticipation of a potential rebound to 250. Safflower and durum wheat, based on current demand, are advised for sale, as market participants do not foresee a quick price increase in the coming weeks.
In Russia, according to "Rusagrotrans," export prices for wheat (12.5% protein) stabilized at around $250 per ton FOB in March, while domestic deep-sea port prices remained unchanged at just above 18,000 rubles per ton (excluding VAT). Wheat exports in February failed to reach 2 million tons, marking the lowest level for this month in five years. The forecast for March remains weak, at just 1.5–1.7 million tons, with experts attributing this to low profitability under current domestic prices and weak external demand.
On the global wheat market, Romanian, French, and U.S. offers have dropped further (to around $240 per ton or lower), while Argentine prices have risen slightly. On tenders, such as Tunisia’s, the lowest offer price (around $262 per ton CNF) translates to about $230–235 FOB for Black Sea ports.
Meanwhile, investors are closely watching renewed tensions around Ukrainian ports, which could drive short-term futures price increases and export price adjustments.
Thus, Kazakhstan’s market is currently experiencing localized price growth, particularly for high-quality wheat and some oilseeds, while Russian wheat exports are slowing due to weak profitability. Globally, competition for lower-priced contracts is intensifying, keeping prices down—except for occasional spikes. However, geopolitical disruptions and supply chain interruptions could quickly reverse this trend, pushing prices back up.

Key Takeaways:
🔹 High-quality wheat (28%+ gluten) is rising in price in Kazakhstan, and further growth is expected for flax and sunflower.
🔹 Russian wheat exports are declining due to weak profitability.
🔹 The global market remains competitive for lower-cost contracts, but tensions around Ukrainian ports could trigger a sudden price increase.