July-December 2022/2023: How Kazakhstan is reorienting wheat flows to the new global reality

 

In recent years, the dynamics of Kazakhstan's wheat exports have undergone significant changes, indicating global shifts in supply and demand in the world grain market. Analyzing export data from July to December 2022 and 2023, one can see how export strategies and supply directions have adapted to the new realities.

One of the most striking examples is the growth in exports to Baltic ports, which increased by 798.5%. This may indicate stronger trade ties with the Baltic countries and increased transit volumes through Baltic ports. This increase is probably due to the search for new markets and optimization of logistic routes.

Significant export growth was also observed to Kyrgyzstan, where volumes increased 6-fold. This underscores the strengthening of economic relations between neighboring states and may indicate increased demand from Kyrgyzstan for Kazakh wheat in light of regional integration and cooperation.

It is also interesting to note the increase in exports through ACB ports by 183.4% and to Turkmenistan by 142.3%. These data may reflect the development of new trade routes and strengthening of trade relations with these regions.

At the same time, there is a decline in exports to some traditional destinations. For example, exports to Azerbaijan decreased by 94.8%. Particularly notable is the significant decrease in shipments in December 2023 as a continuation of the annual trend of decreasing imports of Kazakh wheat. If in December 2022 Azerbaijan imported 27 thousand tons, in December 2023 export of Kazakh wheat to Azerbaijan is equal to 0. Meanwhile, according to the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan, the country has increased imports of Russian wheat. A similar trend can be seen in the reduction of shipments through the port of Aktau by 89.9% and to Afghanistan by 73.3% (from 386,000 tons to 103,000 tons).

Despite a slight decrease in exports to Uzbekistan by 2.2% and reduction of supplies to Tajikistan by 13.1%, these countries remain important partners of Kazakhstan in grain trade.

The expansion of the geography of Kazakhstan wheat exports deserves special attention, in particular, a significant increase in shipments to China. This indicates the search for new markets and Kazakhstan's desire to diversify its export destinations in response to global challenges. However, at the end of the year, grain exports faced logistical challenges, including limited railroad capacity, resulting in lower exports to China.

On the other hand, the overall decline in export volumes to Central Asian countries may reflect increased competition from Russia. As for the decline in shipments to Iran (down 60%), the likely reason is the difficulty in conducting transactions due to sanctions.

In general, the analysis of Kazakh wheat exports shows that under the conditions of global changes in the grain market, Kazakhstan is actively looking for new export destinations, trying to maximize the use of emerging market opportunities.