Kazakhstan wheat exports by destination: analysis of data from January 2024


At the beginning of 2024, Kazakhstan's wheat exports showed notable changes in the dynamics of shipments to key partner countries. Analyzing export operations by rail in January 2024 and comparing them with data for January 2023 and previous months, we can identify several important trends that reflect the state of the market and regional peculiarities of foreign trade relations.

Starting with Uzbekistan, which is traditionally the largest buyer of Kazakh wheat, there was a 23% decrease in exports compared to January last year. Nevertheless, from July to October 2023, exports showed fluctuating dynamics with a peak in October.

In contrast, Tajikistan saw a 21% year-on-year increase in exports, indicating an increased need for imports. From July to October, shipments also showed an upward trend, emphasizing the sustained interest in wheat from Kazakhstan.

Turkmenistan experienced the most significant decrease in exports, down 95% compared to January 2023. It is worth noting that exports to this country showed a steady decline from August to January.

Exports to Azerbaijan were recorded in July and October 2023, after which no exports are observed. This may indicate a change in the country's export strategy.

Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan showed divergent trends: exports to Kyrgyzstan in January 2024 increased by 14% compared to the same month in 2023, while Afghanistan experienced a 66% decline.

Beginning in July 2023, wheat exports to China showed a downward trend, reaching a low in October 2023, followed by an increase in November, followed by another significant drop in December. However, exports rose again in January 2024, to 14,000 tons. Seasonal fluctuations and changes in export volumes are likely due to logistical difficulties.

Comparing January 2024 with December 2023, an overall decrease in export volumes can be observed. The season in Kazakhstan was marked by extremely unfavorable weather conditions for grain crops, including prolonged lack of precipitation and subsequent heavy rains, which led to a significant reduction in grain quality and baking properties. These factors significantly affected wheat export volumes, as only about half of the crop met the requirements for food grain.