Decline in Wheat Export Transportation in Kazakhstan: August 2024 Analysis  

 

In August 2024, the volume of wheat export transportation from Kazakhstan nearly halved compared to the same period last year. By the end of the month, 331,859 tons of wheat were shipped to foreign markets, representing only 53.2% of the 2023 level (624,104 tons). This sharp decline was caused by a combination of internal and external factors that significantly impacted the country’s export potential.

 One of the key reasons was the reduction in the 2023 harvest due to unfavorable climatic conditions. Drought in the southern regions and heavy rains in the north of Kazakhstan negatively affected crop conditions, leading to a decrease in the stock of grain available for export in 2024. The shortage of harvest limited the country's ability to compete in foreign markets, reducing the volume of export shipments.

 Additional pressure on the export potential came from increased competition in traditional sales markets, especially from Russia. Russian suppliers offered lower prices, enabling them to capture a significant share of the Central Asian market, where Kazakhstan has traditionally been a key player.

 Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan’s largest importer of wheat, reduced its purchases from 250,054 tons in August 2023 to 226,646 tons in August 2024, a decrease of 9.4%. Despite this reduction, Uzbekistan remains a key trading partner for Kazakhstan.

 The decline in demand also affected other major importers of Kazakh wheat. Tajikistan, the second-largest export destination, saw its imports decrease from 98,738 tons in August 2023 to 79,163 tons in August 2024, representing a drop of nearly 20%. The sharpest decline was observed in Turkmenistan: exports to this country fell from 105,108 tons in August 2023 to just 4,270 tons in August 2024—a nearly 96% drop. China also significantly reduced its purchases, cutting volumes by almost 80%, from 42,502 tons to 8,551 tons.

 Amid the general decline, some directions showed minor positive changes. Kyrgyzstan increased its imports of Kazakh wheat from 491 tons to 2,086 tons, indicating growing demand and opening up potential for further cooperation. There was also an increase in exports to ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin, where export volumes grew from 2,232 tons to 3,290 tons.

 Thus, the sharp decline in the export volumes of Kazakh wheat in August 2024 resulted from a combination of factors. Unfavorable climatic conditions that reduced the harvest, increased competition in foreign markets, and decreased demand from traditional buyers created a situation in which Kazakhstan found it difficult to maintain previous export volumes. Additionally, due to floods, the sowing campaign in some regions was delayed, which in turn shifted the start of harvesting. This affected the expectations of domestic buyers, as the main harvest became available later than usual, impacting overall transportation volumes and the dynamics of export shipments. These factors underscore the need for Kazakhstan to adapt its export strategy by strengthening relations with key partners and diversifying supply directions to reduce dependence on changes in individual markets and protect the interests of Kazakh exports in the future.