SovEcon Cuts Russian Wheat Export Forecast by 4.7 Million Tonnes

The SovEcon analytical center has once again revised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 marketing year. The new estimate stands at 36.7 million tonnes, which is 4.7 million tonnes below the previous forecast.

If the forecast is realized, export volumes will fall to their lowest level since the 2021/22 season, when Russia exported 33.4 million tonnes of wheat.

Analysts cite worsening prospects for the restoration of normal shipping in the Azov-Black Sea region as the main reason for the downward revision.

At the same time, export estimates for other major grain crops remain unchanged. Barley shipments to foreign markets are still forecast at 3 million tonnes. Corn exports are also expected to total 3 million tonnes.

Following the reduction in the wheat export forecast, the estimate for Russia’s total grain exports was also revised. SovEcon now expects shipments to reach 44.7 million tonnes. A month earlier, the forecast stood at 49.4 million tonnes.

According to the analytical center, normal operations at Russian ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin may resume no earlier than 2027.

At the same time, grain shipments via alternative routes are increasing. In particular, shipments through Baltic Sea ports, Latvia and Lithuania are growing.

Terminals on the Sea of Azov are also being used, with grain cargoes delivered there via the Don River.

SovEcon expects Russia to increase its total grain exports to around 3 million tonnes per month by the end of the current year. Monthly shipments are currently estimated at approximately 2.5 million tonnes.

At the same time, the analytical center notes that under normal conditions, Russia exported around 5–6 million tonnes of grain per month in the second half of the calendar year.