Grain Union of Kazakhstan Does Not Expect Wheat Prices to Decline

Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest this year may amount to 15.2 million tonnes, which is 4.1 million tonnes less than last year. In 2025, the country harvested 19.3 million tonnes of wheat.

The figures were presented by Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, during the EURASIAN AGRICOM-2026 conference.

Among the main trends in the grain sector this season, he noted a reduction in the area planted with wheat and rice, alongside a significant increase in corn acreage.

The total grain harvest is expected to reach 21.45 million tonnes. Wheat is projected to account for 15.2 million tonnes of this volume.

At the same time, prices on the domestic market remain stable. Market participants had previously suggested that an inflow of cheaper Russian grain could put pressure on prices both in Kazakhstan and in Central Asian markets.

However, wheat prices on Kazakhstan’s domestic market are currently KZT 10,000–12,000 per tonne higher than last season. Export prices also remain above last year’s levels.

The Grain Union of Kazakhstan does not expect wheat prices to decline going forward. At the same time, it does not forecast any significant price increase either. Restrictions imposed on Russian wheat supplies to Kazakhstan were among the factors that helped maintain price stability.

According to the Grain Union’s estimate, Kazakhstan imported 2.5 million tonnes of Russian wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year. In the current season, imports may exceed 3.5 million tonnes.

Most of these imports are expected to consist of lower-quality grain intended for use by poultry farms and for the production of feed flour.

Last season, Kazakhstan recorded a record volume of grain product exports. In the 2025/26 marketing year, exports in the wheat group, including food flour and feed flour in grain equivalent, amounted to 15.7 million tonnes.

Wheat itself accounted for 8.8 million tonnes of this volume.

In the 2026/27 marketing year, export volumes may decline due to a lower domestic harvest and competition from Russian grain. Exports of the grain group, including flour, are forecast at 11.7 million tonnes in grain equivalent.

Wheat exports themselves are expected to total 6.6 million tonnes.

Market participants are also paying particular attention to the situation with durum wheat, which Kazakhstan traditionally exports to European countries.

In the 2025/26 marketing year, Kazakhstan exported 425.8 thousand tonnes of durum wheat. In the new season, durum exports are forecast at around 300 thousand tonnes.

According to Yevgeny Karabanov, this estimate refers specifically to potential export volumes rather than production. Kazakhstan’s export potential for durum wheat is estimated at 450 thousand tonnes, but existing logistical constraints prevent the country from increasing actual shipments.

Barley exports are also expected to decline. In the 2026/27 marketing year, Kazakhstan may export around 1 million tonnes of barley, compared with 1.37 million tonnes in the previous season.

One of the factors is the situation in the Iranian market, where Russian barley is predominant this season.

Under these conditions, Kazakhstan plans to redirect more of its feed grain to the markets of Central Asia and China. Barley is also in demand domestically among livestock farms and feed flour producers.