Why Farmers in Kazakhstan Are Holding Back Grain Sales

The Kazakh market for grains and oilseeds continues to demonstrate a pronounced upward trend, affecting key agricultural export commodities. According to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, the past week was marked by a notable increase in prices for barley, flaxseed, and various classes of wheat. Barley showed the most aggressive growth: prices on the domestic market rose by 7,000 tenge, reaching a range of 87,000–91,000 tenge per tonne.

Experts attribute this dynamic not only to domestic factors but also to external geopolitical conditions. In particular, active demand from Iranian importers amid concerns over geopolitical instability is supporting price growth. This is occurring despite the fact that freight rates from the port of Aktau to northern regions of Iran are currently at seasonal lows, estimated at $17–18 per tonne.

The wheat market is characterized by artificially constrained supply. Agricultural producers, expecting the upward price trend to persist, are reluctant to release volumes onto the market. Against the backdrop of high shipment rates, this behavior is creating localized shortages. Domestic prices for Class 3 wheat increased by 1,000–2,000 tenge depending on quality parameters, stabilizing at 92,000–98,000 tenge per tonne.

Notably, lower-grade wheat experienced the most active price increases: Class 4 wheat rose by 2,000 tenge, while Class 5 wheat gained 3,000 tenge per tonne. This dynamic has narrowed the price gap between Class 3 and Class 4 wheat to an economically justified level of 1,000–2,000 tenge.

Export markets are mirroring domestic trends. On a DAP Saryagash basis, prices for Class 3 wheat increased by an average of $7–9, reaching $240–248 per tonne. Similar price increases of $5–10 were recorded for barley and lower-grade wheat across all major export corridors, including Aktau and Dostyk.

According to analysts from the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, export volumes in the current season significantly exceed last year’s levels. The combination of strong external demand, restrained selling by farmers, and reduced market supply is forming a solid foundation for further price growth not only for raw grain but also for processed products, including wheat flour and feed flour.