Record October: how the export map of Kazakh wheat has changed.

Image source: Gemini AI

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Kazakh exporters ended October 2025 with a historical record. During the month, 854.5 thousand tons of soft and durum wheat. This volume exceeded the figures for September by 33%, and last year's level in October - by 24%.

In total, in the first two months of the current marketing season (September-October), the export volume reached 1 million 496.4 thousand tons, which is 27% more than in the same period last year.

According to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, the high pace of shipments at the beginning of the season is dictated by steady demand from traditional partners. As the head of the Union's Analytics Committee Evgeny Karabanov explained, the main importers from Central Asian countries have increased purchases compared to the last marketing year.

Statistics for two months confirm the expert's words with a significant increase in supplies in key areas:

• Azerbaijan — 5.4x increase;

• Afghanistan — more than 2 times;

• Turkmenistan — more than 1.9 times;

• Kyrgyzstan — 1.75x;

• Uzbekistan — by 33%.

In addition, the geography of exports has expanded at the expense of Algeria, Georgia and Iran - in September last year there were no deliveries to these countries. In particular, the Food Corporation continued to work in the Algerian direction, having shipped 6.2 thousand tons of grain there in October.

The situation with China has undergone structural changes. Evgeny Karabanov noted that, although wheat exports to China fell 17 times (a decrease of 68.9 thousand tons in annual terms), this drop was fully compensated by an increase in the supply of feed meal, the volume of which increased immediately by 406.6 thousand tons.

A decline has been recorded in other directions. Deliveries to Italy decreased by almost 8.5 times, to Latvia by almost 1.8 times, and exports to Tajikistan decreased by 4%.

Against the backdrop of active exports, wheat imports to Kazakhstan remain moderate. In September, it amounted to 55.7 thousand tons (mainly from the Russian Federation). The Grain Union expects that in total for the 2025/26 season, about 600 thousand tons of wheat will be imported into the country.

Taking into account the current dynamics, the forecast for the export of Kazakh wheat for this season has been revised upwards. Analysts of the Union expect the indicator at the level of 7.4 million tons, which is 0.4 thousand tons higher than their previous estimate.