Export Prices for High-Quality Wheat Rise in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s grain market is showing a rare dynamic: while prices for low-grade wheat are bottoming out after weeks of decline, high-quality grain is steadily gaining in value due to tightening supply. Experts believe this gap will only widen further.

Last week, the month-long fall in prices for 4th and 5th class wheat nearly came to a halt. According to Yevgeniy Karabanov, Head of the Analytical Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, the slowdown may indicate that the market has reached its lowest price levels.

Prices for 4th class wheat settled at 74–78 KZT/t, while 5th class wheat stood at 64–67 KZT/t, each dropping by 1,000 KZT over the week. A similar decline was recorded for some other categories: 3rd class wheat with gluten content of 23–24% (87–91 KZT/t) and 25–26% (90–94 KZT/t), as well as barley, which is now priced at 75–79 KZT/t.

Meanwhile, premium-quality wheat remained unchanged:
• 27% gluten — 108–112 KZT/t,
• 28–29% — 117–121 KZT/t,
• 30%+ — 126–129 KZT/t.

Export markets highlight demand for premium wheat
On export markets, the upward trend was even stronger. Under DAP Saryagash terms:
• 3rd class wheat with 27% gluten rose by $5, reaching $235–240/t,
• 28–29% gluten wheat also added $5, now $250–255/t,
• wheat with 30%+ gluten jumped by $10, to $280–285/t.
Karabanov explained the price surge by the lack of supply amid strong demand from domestic millers and exporters.

Barley prices fall across all directions
Unlike wheat, barley weakened on all export routes:
• DAP Saryagash fell by $7–8, to $180–185/t,
• FOB Aktau declined by $5, to $200–205/t,
• DAP Dostyk/Altynkol dropped by $4–5, to $187–192/t.
The expert attributed this to weak demand from Iran and China, along with rising railway tariffs and freight rates.

Harvest progress
As of September 29, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that 12 million hectares (74.9%) of land had been harvested, with an average yield of 15.3 c/ha. Farmers collected 18.4 million tons of grain and over 1 million tons of oilseeds. However, persistent rains are reducing grain quality, with the share of 4th and 5th class wheat increasing.

Outlook
According to Karabanov, the gap between ordinary and premium wheat will continue to grow. “High-quality wheat is in strong demand both domestically and internationally. Further price growth is inevitable,” he said.