Grain swing: Russian corn exports to China increased 2.9 times amid a collapse in wheat and barley supplies.

The results of 2025 in agricultural trade between Russia and China have brought many surprises. While some crops are storming historical highs, others are showing a sharp drop. According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the export basket of the Russian Federation has undergone a serious transformation: mass shipments of wheat have been replaced by a real "corn boom".

 

The main triumphant of the last year was corn. Russia increased the supply of this crop to China by a record 2.9 times. In numbers, this looks even more impressive: 444 thousand tons for a total of $107.6 million.

 

Other crops that were previously considered secondary are not far behind:

 

Buckwheat: historical maximum - 255.1 thousand tons (+11.5%), which brought Russian farmers $68.2 million.

 

Oats: stable growth of 5% to 238.9 thousand tons ($54.5 million).

 

Against the background of the success of corn, the indicators for wheat look, to put it mildly, modest. Supplies of the "main grain" collapsed by 5.7 times. If in 2024 Russia shipped 345.8 thousand tons, then by the end of 2025 this volume shrank to 60.6 thousand tons ($13.8 million). This is the lowest figure since 2022.

 

In addition, against the background of a drop in wheat supplies, barley also "sank" — its exports decreased by a third, amounting to 518.9 thousand tons ($111.2 million).

 

We are witnessing a structural shift. Records for buckwheat and corn show that Beijing is ready to expand purchases, but acts pointwise.

The main challenge for Russian exporters for 2026 is to understand whether the collapse in wheat is temporary or a new reality to which they will have to adapt.