13.01.2026, 18:27
Export potential of Kazakh wheat in the 2025/26 season to exceed 12 million tons due to processing
Wheat and flour exports strengthen Kazakhstan’s position in Central Asian markets
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised upward its forecast for wheat exports from Kazakhstan. However, according to industry analysts, the American estimate does not take into account a significant volume of processed products supplies. Including flour exports, the country’s real export potential in the current season is estimated to be much higher — at around 12.5 million tons in grain equivalent.
In its January report, USDA experts increased the forecast for Kazakhstan’s wheat exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY) by 0.5 million tons, setting it at 9.5 million tons.
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan (GUK) considers these figures understated due to methodological specifics that exclude flour exports. According to Evgeny Karabanov, Head of the Analytics Committee of the GUK, flour shipments in the current season are projected at 3.1 million tons. When this volume is converted into grain equivalent and added to raw wheat exports, total sales of Kazakh wheat to foreign markets will reach approximately 12.5 million tons.
Differences are also observed in assessments of gross production. The U.S. agency estimates Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest in 2025 at 18.9 million tons. At the same time, according to official data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, gross output in bunker weight amounted to 20.3 million tons. The discrepancy is traditionally explained by the transition from bunker weight to post-processing weight (refaction).
Analysts pay particular attention to demand from traditional importers of Kazakh grain. USDA forecasts high purchasing activity from Central Asian buyers:
– Uzbekistan’s imports in the current season are estimated at 4.3 million tons.
– Afghanistan’s imports are projected at 4.6 million tons.
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan compared these expectations with actual figures from the previous season. A year earlier, Uzbekistan purchased 4 million tons from Kazakhstan (including flour in grain equivalent), while supplies to Afghanistan stood at 2 million tons. Thus, the current USDA forecasts imply not only the preservation of Kazakhstan’s positions in the Uzbek market, but also more than a twofold increase in demand from Afghanistan, opening up significant opportunities for Kazakh traders.
