Kazakhstan in the TOP-4 Suppliers to the EU: What’s Happening in the Global Sunflower Meal Market?

In recent months, the sunflower oil and meal market has undergone significant changes. Trade restrictions, adjustments to export duties, and shifts in supply structures are forcing major producers to adapt their strategies.

Russia Reduces Export Duties: A Boost for Exporters
Starting in March 2025, Russia is lowering export duties on sunflower oil and meal, making exports more profitable. According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, the duty on sunflower oil will almost halve—from 17,786.4 rubles to 9,333.2 rubles per ton, while the duty on sunflower meal will drop from 3,888.7 rubles to 1,742.3 rubles per ton.
The calculation is based on indicative prices set at $1,065.1 per ton of oil and $204.1 per ton of meal. The floating duty mechanism, introduced in 2021, has been extended until 2026 to maintain export flexibility.
The reduction in duties may increase the competitiveness of Russian products in the global market. In 2024, sunflower oil prices rose by 8%, despite declining demand from India and China, the two largest importers. Against this backdrop, Russian exporters have additional incentives to boost shipments.

EU Restructures Imports: Ukraine Fills the Gap
The sunflower meal export market has also undergone significant changes after the EU imposed protective duties on products from Russia and Belarus. As a result, Russian meal exports to the EU have completely stopped, with Ukraine stepping in to fill the void.
According to the European Commission’s latest data, between July and the first decade of February in the 2024/25 marketing year, sunflower meal imports into the EU fell by 8%, totaling 1.5 million tons. However, despite the overall decline, Ukraine increased its exports to the EU by 65%—reaching 968,000 tons. Ukraine’s share in the EU import market grew from 36–37% to 66%.
Argentina remains the second-largest supplier of sunflower meal to the EU, covering 26% of the market. Kazakhstan, despite relatively small export volumes (41,000 tons), has risen from fifth to fourth place among suppliers. However, experts note that high logistics costs remain a major obstacle to further growth in Kazakh exports.

Russia Shifts Focus to the Chinese Market
With the EU cutting off Russian sunflower meal imports, Russia has sought alternative markets. One of the key destinations has become China, where exports have surged.
According to International Trade Center data, from July to December 2024, Russia’s sunflower meal exports to China increased by 69%—from 159,000 tons to 269,000 tons.
Although shipment volumes remain unstable, this shift has already impacted Ukrainian exports to China. Previously, Ukraine held a strong position in this market, but Russia's growing presence has changed the competitive landscape.

Conclusions: A Market in Transition
Adjustments to Russian export duties, EU trade restrictions, and growing competition in China are shaping new trends in the sunflower meal and oil trade.
Russia, by lowering export duties, aims to expand its share in the global market. The EU has replaced Russian meal with Ukrainian products, strengthening Ukraine’s role as a key supplier. Meanwhile, China has become an important buyer of Russian meal, though the long-term sustainability of this trend remains uncertain.
Global players are forced to adapt to new conditions, and in the coming months, the market may face further changes driven by demand fluctuations, geopolitical factors, and logistical challenges.