China Expands Grain Sowing and Reduces Dependence on Imports

China continues to pursue a strategy aimed at strengthening food security by increasing domestic grain production and reducing reliance on foreign imports. Key measures include expanding arable land, introducing high-yield crop varieties, and large-scale use of genetically modified (GM) crops.

Corn: Production Growth and Steady Demand
According to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China’s corn production in the 2025–2026 marketing year is expected to reach 300 million tons—1.7% higher than the previous forecast. The growth is mainly attributed to expanded planting of GM hybrids. Despite ongoing trade restrictions and tariffs, imports are expected to increase to 8 million tons, as China continues to shift its sourcing from the U.S. to Brazil.

Total corn consumption is projected to rise to 321 million tons. About 65% is used in animal feed, driven by strong demand in the poultry sector and stable pork production. Roughly 30% of corn is processed for industrial use, including starch, ethanol, amino acids, and other products. According to FAS, this segment will remain steady at 83 million tons.

Wheat: Stable Consumption and Growing Production
China remains the world’s largest wheat producer. In the 2025–2026 season, the harvest is forecasted at 142 million tons, up 1.5% from the previous year. Winter wheat accounts for nearly all output. High yields and guaranteed profitability encourage farmers to maintain wheat planting.

Wheat consumption will remain at 151 million tons, including 118 million tons for food use and up to 33 million tons for animal feed. FAS notes a sustained decline in flour demand due to a shrinking and aging population. As of the end of 2024, China’s population had declined for the third year in a row, reaching 1.408 billion people.

Wheat imports are expected to rise to 8 million tons, though still below the 2023 level, mainly due to tariff policies and canceled contracts.

Rice: Production Growth and Shift Toward Feed Use
China's paddy rice production is projected at 208.5 million tons in 2025–2026, thanks to stable acreage and improved yields. Consumption will reach 146 million tons—1 million more than the previous year. FAS attributes this increase to rising demand for animal feed. Meanwhile, rice consumption for food is expected to continue declining in line with demographic trends.

🔑 Key Takeaways:
• Corn: Production in 2025–2026 will rise to 300 million tons; 65% goes to animal feed; imports shift from the U.S. to Brazil.
• Wheat: China remains the global leader in production (142 million tons); food consumption is stable, but flour demand declines.
• Rice: Output reaches 208.5 million tons; more rice is used for feed rather than food.