Russian Wheat Export Forecast Revised Upward

Analysts at Rusagrotrans have raised their April forecast for Russian wheat exports to 1.8–1.9 million tonnes, up from the previously expected 1.5–1.6 million tonnes. The main driver of this upward revision is increased shipments to Iran and Turkey. Despite the positive trend, current export volumes remain significantly below the level recorded in April 2024, when exports reached 4.89 million tonnes.

For the 2024/25 agricultural season as a whole, the export potential of Russian wheat is now estimated at 41.2–41.5 million tonnes, compared to the previous forecast of 40.8 million tonnes. Analysts attribute this revision to favorable market conditions and sustained demand from key importers.

Against the backdrop of intensifying competition in the global market, export prices have shown mixed dynamics. The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for April shipment has fallen to $250 per tonne (FOB), down $2 from the previous week. Meanwhile, Romanian wheat rose to $255/t (+$4), French wheat to $252/t (+$10), Argentine wheat to $250/t (+$5), and U.S. wheat to $234/t (+$4). Australian wheat decreased to $247/t (-$2).

Additional support for the global wheat market came from the weakening of the U.S. dollar, as well as the 90-day delay in the implementation of U.S. import tariffs for most countries (excluding China). These developments helped ease price pressure and boost buyer activity.
The domestic wheat market in Russia has seen little change. In deep-sea ports, the price of 4th-class wheat with 12.5% protein content remains at 17,800–18,000 RUB/t (ex-VAT), while rail shipments are priced at 18,200–19,200 RUB/t.

Price stability persists across the country’s key agricultural regions. In southern Russia, purchase prices (EXW, elevator) range from 15,800–16,300 RUB/t, in the Central Federal District — 15,700–16,100 RUB/t, and in the Volga Region — 15,800–16,200 RUB/t. In Siberia, where traditionally lower prices prevail, a slight increase has been noted: 4th-class wheat now trades at 11,000–12,000 RUB/t, up 100 rubles from the previous week.

Meanwhile, abnormally warm weather is forecast for European Russia. According to U.S. weather models, temperatures in the Central Federal District may reach +20…+24°C. Despite the heat, agrometeorologists believe that crop development will not be harmed, though the warm spell may accelerate soil moisture depletion, which is currently at acceptable levels.

Key Takeaways:
• April wheat export forecast raised to 1.8–1.9 million tonnes, driven by active shipments to Iran and Turkey.
• Russian wheat prices (FOB) are falling, while French, Romanian, and Argentine wheat are becoming more expensive.
• Domestic market stable; slight price increase noted in Siberia.