From Global Factors to Domestic Inflation: Why Meat Became More Expensive

According to the latest review by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the average value of the Meat Price Index reached 123.2 points in 2025. This represents an increase of 6 points, or 5.1%, compared to the previous year.

Analysts identify two key drivers behind this upward trend.
First, sustained demand from importers, which persisted throughout most of the year.
Second, heightened market uncertainty caused by outbreaks of animal diseases and a complex geopolitical environment, both of which affected logistics and product availability.

Across individual categories, price dynamics developed unevenly. Beef and mutton made the largest contribution to the overall growth of the index. FAO experts note that the price surge in these segments was triggered by a market imbalance: strong import demand collided with limited export supply.

At the same time, pork and poultry markets experienced the opposite trend, with prices declining. In the pork sector, downward pressure stemmed from weakening global demand, while the decline in poultry prices was attributed to market saturation and substantial supply volumes.

Toward the end of the year, the price curve changed direction. In December, the index stood at 123.6 points, down 1.3% from the revised November level, although it remained 3.4% higher than in December 2024.

The year-end decline was broad-based and affected all types of meat, with the sharpest corrections recorded in beef and poultry.

FAO analysts provide detailed explanations for the December downturn by product group.
In the beef market, the main source of downward pressure was Australia. The onset of the dry season prompted local producers to accelerate herd reductions, resulting in a sharp increase in cattle available for slaughter and a subsequent drop in export prices.
In the poultry sector, a classic market mechanism prevailed: supply from exporters significantly exceeded current import demand.
Pork prices declined amid falling quotations in the European Union, where global buyer interest has also weakened.
In the mutton segment, despite stable global demand, prices edged lower due to a seasonal increase in supply volumes.

Overall, 2025 demonstrated high volatility in the global meat market. A shortage of red meat offset declines in other segments, ensuring overall annual growth.

In Kazakhstan’s domestic market, price dynamics in 2025 were significantly more pronounced than global trends. The meat and meat products sector became the main driver of food inflation, recording an annual increase of 22.6%. In line with global developments, red meats led the surge: beef prices jumped by a record 32.1%, while mutton rose by 28.8%, driven by strong export demand and the outflow of raw materials to neighboring markets. Poultry (+10.7%) and pork (+5.4%) showed more moderate price growth.