Domestic grain prices stop rising

Last week, price growth for grains and flaxseed on Kazakhstan’s domestic market effectively came to a halt. Only Class 5 wheat posted a minor increase of 1,000 tenge per ton and is now traded at 87–91 thousand tenge. This was reported by Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the Analytical Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.

According to him, the sharp surge seen a week earlier began to overheat the market. A significant strengthening of the national currency added further pressure. As a result, a price gap between domestic and export markets is forming, restraining trading activity.

Farmers, expecting further price increases, are still holding back sales. However, supply of grain and oilseeds may expand soon: many farms must make leasing payments in February and repay loans under the Ken Dala and Ken Dala 2 programs in March.

On foreign markets, there were no major changes in wheat prices during the reporting week. On a DAP Saryagash basis, Class 4 wheat rose by $1 to $231–236 per ton, while Class 5 wheat gained $2 to $222–227. Barley increased by $5 towards DAP Saryagash ($230–235) and FOB Aktau port ($235–245). At DAP Dostyk/Altynkol, prices remained unchanged at $210–215. China continues to show interest in Kazakh barley, but shipments are limited by border crossing capacity.

Karabanov also highlighted unusually high export rates since the beginning of the year. According to operational data from KTZ, 1.179 million tons of grain were shipped abroad in January, up 41% year-on-year. About 90% of exports are wheat.

Shipments by destination were as follows:

Uzbekistan — 576 thousand tons (+69%);
Tajikistan — 145 thousand tons (+59%);
Kyrgyzstan — 34 thousand tons (+70%);
Afghanistan — 87 thousand tons (up 3.6 times);
China — 90 thousand tons (+35%);
Russian Black Sea ports — 47 thousand tons (+40%);
Russian Baltic ports — 42 thousand tons (+90%);
Baltic states ports — 48 thousand tons (+10%).

Declines were recorded only to Azerbaijan — down to 23 thousand tons (-62%) and Iran — down to 24 thousand tons (-80%).

According to the Analytical Committee, from February 2 to 8 EXW prices (elevator, including 16% VAT) were, tenge per ton:

Class 3 wheat (23–24% gluten) — 92–96 thousand;
25–26% — 95–98 thousand;
27% — 109–113 thousand;
28–29% — 116–120 thousand;
30+ — 131–135 thousand;
Class 4 wheat — 89–93 thousand;
Class 5 wheat — 87–91 thousand;
feed barley — 87–91 thousand;
flaxseed — 225–235 thousand.

Export prices at DAP Saryagash, USD per ton:

Class 3 wheat (23–24%) — 240–245;
25–26% — 243–248;
27% — 260–265;
28–29% — 280–285;
30+ — 295–300;
Class 4 wheat — 231–236;
Class 5 wheat — 222–227;
Kazakh wheat flour (Atta) — 260–265;
first grade flour — 315–320;
premium flour — 405–410.

Feed flour at DAP Alashankou / Khorgos:

protein 11–12% — 240–245;
protein 12–13% — 245–250.