Kazakhstan's Grain Market: Domestic Calm and Export Tension

 

A mixed dynamic is being observed in Kazakhstan's grain market. While domestic prices are showing moderate and steady gains, export destinations—particularly towards Central Asia—have recorded significant growth.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the domestic price of wheat increased by an average of 2 tenge per kilogram over the week. This slight increase affected all main classes, from "third" to "fifth". Analysts note that this growth is not yet a stable trend but reflects localized purchasing activities by traders and processors.

Most crops remain in the "as needed" category, meaning they are sold only out of technical or financial necessity. Farmers are in no hurry to sell their grain, anticipating a more favorable price environment. High-protein wheat and "third-class" varieties are on "hold"—producers are advised to wait for the best time to sell.

Meanwhile, the situation on the export front is much more active. According to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, a significant rise in export quotations has been recorded on DAP Saryagash terms. Prices for 4th and 5th-class wheat rose by $6 per ton, 3rd-class wheat by $4–$5, and high-pro by $3. Thus, Kazakh grain has strengthened more significantly on the external market than domestically.

According to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the analytical department at the Grain Union, the increase in export prices is linked to the strengthening of the tenge, rising transportation costs, and reduced throughput capacity of the railway infrastructure.

"Current demand for wheat is constrained by the capabilities of the railways in Kazakhstan and neighboring countries. This leads to more expensive logistics and, combined with the strengthening tenge, results in higher export prices for wheat and flour," the expert explained.

A buildup of over 8,400 railcars is currently registered approaching the Saryagash station. The Uzbek side is accepting fewer trains than the standard norm, forcing KTZ (Kazakhstan Temir Zholy) to impose loading restrictions. This creates "bottlenecks" that intensify pressure on logistics and push export prices upward.

Thus, Kazakhstan's domestic market remains relatively calm, while the export market is overheated by logistics and currency factors. The moderate rise in domestic wheat prices logically reflects the reaction to external trends but has not yet developed into a full-fledged trend.

Farmers are holding onto their reserves, believing that limited logistics and the seasonal increase in transport may work in their favor. Exporters, in turn, are trying to capitalize on the favorable conditions, despite difficulties with railcar dispatch.

As a result, Kazakhstan's grain market today is in a holding pattern: domestically, "as needed"; at the border, "as possible".