Global and Regional Grain Market Analysis for 2024/2025 and Outlook for the Next Season

Current Situation in the Global Grain Market

The beginning of 2025 has been marked by a decline in prices for major grain crops on leading global exchanges. On February 5, 2025, wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by 0.82%, corn by 0.26%, and soybeans by 1.67%. A similar trend was observed in the European market: in Paris (MATIF), wheat prices dropped by 1.38%, and corn by 1.17%. The main factors behind this decline were profit-taking, improved weather conditions in South America, and reduced grain imports by key consumer countries, including China and Turkey.

A decrease in wheat imports is observed in many countries, putting pressure on global prices. China, the largest grain buyer, has reduced purchases by more than half—from 13.6 million tons in 2023/24 to 6 million tons in 2024/25. Turkey has also lowered imports to 5 million tons from 9 million tons the previous year. Additional pressure on the market has come from slower deliveries to Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Iraq.

Despite the overall decline in demand, export prices for Russian wheat have reached $242/ton FOB for March deliveries, the highest level of the current season. This is due to reduced export volumes from Russia and the EU, as well as rising domestic prices.

Grain Production Outlook for 2025/2026

The Rusagrotrans Analytical Center forecasts an increase in global grain production in the 2025/26 season. In Russia, grain output is expected to rise from 124 million tons to 132.4 million tons, including:

• Wheat: 82.4 million tons to 84.6 million tons

• Barley: 16.7 million tons to 18.9 million tons

• Corn: 12.4 million tons to 14.7 million tons

On a global scale, wheat production in 2024/25 is estimated at 625.6 million tons, which is 6.9 million tons (1.2%) higher than in the 2023/24 season but still below the levels of the previous two seasons.

With increasing production, total wheat exports from countries such as the U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan are expected to grow by 12.4 million tons. However, Russia and the EU-27 are forecasted to reduce exports by 22.8 million tons, leading to a net decline of 10.4 million tons in global shipments.

Grain Prices in Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, wheat prices have shown a slight increase since the beginning of 2025 compared to December 2024. The average producer price in January 2025 was 68,000 tenge per ton, with regional price variations as follows:

• Western Kazakhstan: 89,000 tenge

• Eastern Kazakhstan: 84,000 tenge

• Abay region: 75,000 tenge

• Karaganda and Pavlodar regions: 72,000 tenge

• Northern regions: 62,000-63,000 tenge

The price of hard wheat dropped from 106,700 tenge to 77,000 tenge over the month, while soft wheat rose from 66,400 tenge to 67,700 tenge. Other grains showed mixed trends: barley increased to 56,700 tenge, corn fell to 59,800 tenge, and rice reached 137,000 tenge per ton.

Factors Influencing the Market

1. Weather Conditions

• Russia faces a risk of spring drought due to low precipitation in the South, Central, and Western Volga regions.

• In Argentina, improving weather and rainfall in central regions have restored crops, putting downward pressure on prices.

2. Declining Demand

• Import restrictions in China, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and several other countries have led to a reduction in global grain demand.

• China has delayed purchases of 600,000 tons of Australian wheat, further impacting the global market.

3. Export Policies

• Russia has significantly reduced export volumes, leading to higher domestic prices.

• The EU cut wheat shipments by 37% compared to last year.

4. Currency Fluctuations

• The U.S. dollar remains stable (98.53 RUB), while a weaker euro (102.68 RUB) makes European grain less competitive on the global market.

Conclusions and Outlook

The grain market at the beginning of 2025 is experiencing a price correction following growth at the end of 2024. The declining demand from China and Turkey is putting downward pressure on global prices, while reduced exports from Russia and the EU are supporting Russian wheat prices. In Kazakhstan, soft wheat prices are rising, but hard wheat has seen a significant decline.

The expected increase in global grain production in 2025/26 may lead to further price reductions, especially if favorable weather conditions persist. However, if the spring drought intensifies in Russia and Europe, this could trigger another price surge later in the year.

In the coming months, the market will need to balance increasing production with uncertain global demand. Traders will closely monitor weather conditions, export volumes, and political decisions from the world’s largest grain-importing and exporting countries.