Abnormal Warmth and Precipitation Deficit: How Winter Crops Survived Early January in Southern Kazakhstan

Despite temperature anomalies and a lack of moisture, agrometeorologists assess winter grain overwintering conditions as satisfactory. However, risks persist in certain areas.

According to monitoring data from RSE “Kazhydromet,” the first ten days of January in the southern and southeastern regions of the republic were marked by air temperatures exceeding the climatic norm by 2–4°C. Against the backdrop of warming, a deficit of atmospheric precipitation was observed in the main grain-producing zones.

During this period, winter crops were in a state of dormancy. Experts note that no critical drops in temperature capable of damaging overwintering crops were recorded. Overall, the agrometeorological situation was favorable for crop preservation, although conditions varied by region.

Almaty Region

In the grain-growing districts of the region, minimum air temperatures ranged from –8 to –11°C. Temperatures at the tillering node depth dropped to –6°C, which is within acceptable limits.

Soil freezing depth in the region was significant, ranging from 19 to 44 cm. The snow cover, which serves as a thermal insulator, formed unevenly, with a height of 4–9 cm.

Important: Agrometeorologists warn of risks for farms where snow cover does not exceed 5 cm. In the event of severe frosts, weakly developed plants in such fields may be damaged.

Precipitation across most of the territory was insignificant, with the exception of Zhambyl District, where levels exceeded the norm.

Jetisu Region

This region recorded the lowest air temperatures compared to neighboring areas: –13 to –19°C. However, crops are well protected — snow cover height ranges from 10 to 18 cm, reaching up to 21 cm in some locations. Soil freezing reached depths of up to 19 cm. A precipitation deficit was also observed.

Zhambyl Region

Moderate frosts were observed in the region (–5 to –8°C). Soil temperature in the tillering node zone remained positive (+3°C). Due to warming, the snow cover almost completely melted. By the end of the ten-day period, soil freezing reached 2–9 cm, and in some places up to 16 cm. Precipitation amounts were below normative values.

Turkestan Region

In the southernmost region, overwintering conditions also occurred amid a moisture deficit (precipitation was below long-term average values). Minimum air temperatures remained within –5 to –8°C, while –3°C was recorded at the tillering node depth. Snow cover was absent. A characteristic feature of the period was soil condition: it was predominantly thawed, with freezing to 4–6 cm observed only locally.