USDA forecasts near-record wheat harvest in Kazakhstan

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Kazakhstan may harvest nearly 18 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year. This figure is slightly lower than last season’s result, which was the second-largest harvest on record.

The decline in production is attributed to a reduction in wheat planting areas as part of the crop diversification policy. However, in the previous season, the decrease in acreage was partly offset by higher yields thanks to favorable weather conditions.

USDA estimates that Kazakhstan’s wheat exports may reach about 10 million tons, which corresponds to the record level of the previous season. The forecast is based on the country’s grain stocks, the extension of the transport subsidy program, and strong export performance since the beginning of the season. The report notes that from September to December Kazakhstan exported 5.3 million tons of wheat, almost 40% more than in the same period last year. The main buyers traditionally remain Central Asian countries, but Kazakh exporters are diversifying shipments by supplying grain to more distant markets in Europe and North Africa.

In December, monthly export volumes surged to 2.1 million tons. According to survey participants, the increase was primarily driven by stronger sales of milling wheat to buyers in Uzbekistan who were trying to secure supplies ahead of expected export price increases. Prices were higher than usual due to growing demand for dual-purpose wheat, which can be used both as feed and for producing feed flour for export to China, the USDA report states.

Domestic wheat consumption in Kazakhstan is also expected to increase this season to about 8.7 million tons. The growth, continuing for the fourth consecutive year, is linked to the processing of lower-quality wheat into feed flour that is exported to China. At the same time, demand for feed within Kazakhstan is also rising.