What to Sell and What to Hold? Key Signals from the Agrimarket in Early July

An analytical review of the current price situation for major agricultural crops in Kazakhstan shows multidirectional dynamics. While the grain segment is predominantly showing a sideways trend, the oilseed market is demonstrating significant growth in key positions.

Grain Segment: A Zone of Low Volatility
Price stability has been established in the market for new crop grains. Most positions for soft wheat and barley have shown no change in value, indicating a balance between supply and demand.

The only recorded dynamic is a slight negative price correction for 3rd class soft wheat with gluten up to 23%, which decreased by 1 KZT/kg to 90 KZT/kg (all prices hereafter are inclusive of VAT, on an EXW-elevator basis).

Current weighted average prices for other wheat classes remain at previous levels:
• Wheat 3 cl. (gluten 28%+): 131 KZT/kg
• Wheat 3 cl. (up to 25% gluten): 96 KZT/kg
• Wheat 4 cl.: 88 KZT/kg
• Wheat 5 cl.: 80 KZT/kg
• Barley 2 cl.: 85 KZT/kg

For all the above positions, analysts recommend selling consignments as technical or financial needs arise for farms, without rushing.

Special Focus: Durum Wheat
Despite the absence of price fluctuations for durum wheat (price at the level of 81-94 KZT/kg depending on protein), market experts recommend to "sell". Current price levels are considered to be close to their peaks. For producers, this could be a favorable opportunity to sell accumulated volumes before a likely trend reversal in the medium term.
Oilseed Market: Safflower and Sunflower Lead the Growth
In contrast to grains, the oilseed sector has become the source of the main news of the week, demonstrating impressive price dynamics.

• Safflower showed explosive growth, adding 74 KZT/kg to its price. Its current value has reached 212 KZT/kg. Due to such a sharp jump, analysts recommend selling to lock in high margins.
• Sunflower also showed confident strengthening, rising by 36 KZT/kg to 238 KZT/kg. The recommendation for it remains to "sell as needed". Despite the significant growth, the potential for further movement towards the forecast maximum (250 KZT/kg) is not yet exhausted, but the market is already in a high-price zone.

Prices for other oilseeds and legumes, including flax (300 KZT/kg), rapeseed (223 KZT/kg), and soy (204 KZT/kg), remained unchanged.

Key Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations
• Grain Sector: The market is in a state of equilibrium. For farmers, this means the opportunity to conduct planned sales of products without market pressure. Special attention should be paid to durum wheat stocks, for which there is an expert recommendation to sell.
• Oilseed Sector: High volatility and growth are observed. For safflower holders, the optimal period for profit-taking has arrived. Sunflower producers should also consider selling part of their volumes, given the proximity of prices to forecast maximums.

The current situation requires market participants to have a flexible approach and careful monitoring of price signals to make timely and effective trading decisions.