Export Price of Russian Wheat Hits Highest Level Since May 2024

Last week, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for March-April delivery rose by $7 to $255 per ton FOB. According to data from the analytical center of JSC "Rusagrotrans", this is the highest level in the past ten months. Experts note that the price increase followed a recent downward correction and was caused by limited supply on global markets. The last time such price levels were recorded was at the end of May 2024, when Russia’s harvest was severely affected by return frosts.
In contrast, the domestic market is showing a downward trend. Prices for 4th class wheat (12.5% protein) in Russia’s deep-water ports fell by 250 rubles over the week — to 17,300–17,800 rubles per ton excluding VAT. In shallow water ports, the drop amounted to 400 rubles, reaching 16,300 rubles per ton.

The decline in domestic prices is driven by the strengthening of the ruble and the reduction of export margins. These factors limit buyer activity and make sales less profitable for traders. Prices under CPT Novorossiysk terms with rail delivery also dropped by 150 rubles over the week, to 18,400–18,800 rubles per ton.

Thus, the market is under the influence of opposing forces. On the one hand — steady growth in export prices due to stable demand. On the other — pressure from domestic economic conditions, currency revaluation, and logistical costs.

In the near future, key factors for market participants will remain currency dynamics, global demand, and the prospects of the new harvest.

 

🔑 Key takeaways:
🔹 Export price for Russian wheat (12.5%) rose to $255/ton (FOB) — the highest in 10 months due to limited global supply.
🔹 Domestic prices are falling — ruble is strengthening, margins are shrinking. Ports saw a drop of 250–400 rubles/ton.
🔹 The market is under pressure: exports are growing, domestic demand is weak, and traders are losing profitability.