El Niño and peak solar activity: are we in for the hottest year on record?

This year there is a real possibility of setting a new temperature record due to the combination of the peak of solar activity and the duration of the El Niño phenomenon, which could last up to two years.

The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by an anomalous increase in water temperature in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, began in the early summer of 2023. Climatologist Alexei Kokorin shared his opinion that if El Niño lasts until mid-2025, the whole year 2024 will be under its influence, which may make it the warmest year in the history of observations.

In addition to El Niño, the year's temperatures will also be significantly affected by solar activity. The peak of the 11-year cycle is expected to occur in 2024. Although the impact of solar activity on the Earth's temperature is estimated as less significant than El Niño, its role in the formation of climatic conditions should not be underestimated, as noted climatologist.