Iran May Increase Imports of Kazakh Grain by 1 Million Tons

In the second half of June, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East became a central issue on the international agenda. Despite a temporary lull, risks to foreign trade and economic activity in the region remain. Against this backdrop, particular attention from grain market participants is focused on Iran — the main consumer of Kazakh barley.
According to Rustam Zhanatayev, Managing Director of JSC "NC "Prodcorporation" (the national operator of Kazakhstan’s grain market), in an interview with APK-Inform, Iran significantly increased imports of Kazakh barley in the 2024/25 marketing year. Deliveries totaled 956 thousand tons, compared to just 54 thousand tons the previous season. This sharp growth, he explained, is largely due to a decline in Russia’s barley harvest — from 20.5 million tons in 2023 to 16.2 million tons in 2024. Production in Russia is expected to partially recover to 18 million tons in the new season, but the supply shortfall has already shifted regional trade dynamics.

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, Iran is working to diversify its import routes. Whereas earlier the bulk of grain imports came through southern ports on the Persian Gulf, there is now growing interest in northern corridors — including supplies via the Caspian Sea from Kazakhstan.

Zhanatayev noted that strikes on southern Iranian terminals, including oil and grain ports, are forcing Tehran to seek alternative logistics routes. Preliminary estimates suggest that in the 2025/26 season, Iran may increase imports of food and feed grains by 1 million tons. Most of this volume is expected to arrive by sea through the Caspian via the international "North–South" transport corridor. This includes both the eastern route through Kazakhstan’s Aktau port and the western route via Azerbaijan with Russian grain.

In parallel with logistics reorientation, a rise in transportation costs is also anticipated. Military risks — especially in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil exports — are influencing pricing. The increase in oil prices drives up logistics costs, putting pressure on the prices of raw materials, including grain. However, Zhanatayev noted that by the end of June 2025, oil prices had stabilized following a sharp spike, which helped to balance the grain market situation.