05.05.2025, 19:08
Kazakhstan May Break Wheat and Flour Export Record: Forecast for the 2024/25 Season
Export forecast for 2024/25 MY — up to 11.1 million tons in grain equivalent
The total volume of wheat and wheat flour exports in grain equivalent from Kazakhstan in the current season may reach 11–11.1 million tons, exceeding the previous season’s record of 10.83 million tons. This was reported by Yevgeny Karabanov, Head of the Analytics Department at the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, in his official Telegram channel.
According to his forecast, wheat exports in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to total 7.5 million tons. Exports of wheat flour are projected at 1.85 million tons (equivalent to 2.47 million tons of grain), and feed flour at 1.4 million tons (equivalent to 1.12 million tons of grain).
The analyst also noted that, given the current pace of shipments, significant carry-over stocks of wheat by the end of the season are unlikely. The Grain Union estimates them at no more than 2.2–2.5 million tons.
Karabanov also highlighted changes in the structure of exports to China, one of Kazakhstan’s key grain trade partners. He stated that over the first seven months of the current season, wheat shipments to China dropped to 134 thousand tons, compared to 319 thousand tons during the same period last year. At the same time, wheat flour exports surged from 0.8 thousand tons to 19.9 thousand tons, and feed flour exports from 260.8 thousand tons to 973.6 thousand tons.
🔑 Key Takeaways:
🔹 Export forecast for 2024/25 MY — up to 11.1 million tons in grain equivalent.
🔹 Expected minimum carry-over wheat stocks — only 2.2–2.5 million tons.
🔹 Export structure to China has shifted: wheat down, flour up.