Kazakhstan’s Agricultural Market Analysis: Trends and Forecasts (February 2025)

In February 2025, Kazakhstan’s grain market remains stable, with no significant signs of growth. The only price decline was recorded in 3rd class wheat with gluten content up to 25%, which decreased by 1 tenge per kilogram. Other categories remained unchanged, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
Notably, even premium wheat varieties, such as durum wheat with high protein content, showed no significant fluctuations. This suggests that the market is experiencing low volatility and is likely to remain in a similar price range in the coming months.
At the moment, there are no clear drivers for significant price increases in Kazakh wheat and other grain crops. However, future price dynamics will depend on weather conditions, exchange rate fluctuations, export restrictions, and developments in the Black Sea region. Given the projected minimum price levels, producers must carefully plan sales strategies to avoid potential losses if prices decrease further.
Oilseeds Market: Local Growth and Export Prospects
Unlike the grain sector, the oilseed market is showing more active dynamics. Flaxseed prices increased by 5 tenge per kilogram, while safflower saw a significant surge of 19 tenge per kilogram. These changes may be linked to increased domestic and export demand.
Other oilseeds, such as sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans, have not seen price fluctuations yet. Their future trends will depend on export contracts and global vegetable oil market conditions.
Maintaining high prices will only be possible if export demand remains strong and supply does not increase rapidly. Producers need to carefully assess whether to sell now or wait for further price increases, considering the high volatility of niche markets. Given the current price stability, selling oilseeds now may be a reasonable choice to mitigate potential risks.
Russian Grain Market and Its Impact on Kazakhstan
In Russia, export wheat prices (12.5% protein) for February-March deliveries have risen to $245 per ton FOB. This is due to a sharp slowdown in Black Sea region exports and increased demand from importing countries. However, domestic prices in Russian deep-water ports have declined due to a strengthening ruble and reduced export profitability, leading to a drop in sales from Russian farmers.
Russia’s domestic market also showed mixed trends: prices decreased in the southern region but strengthened in the Central and Volga Federal Districts. The country’s February 2025 wheat export forecast has been lowered to 2.2-2.3 million tons, significantly below last year’s 4.39 million tons in February 2024.
The slowdown in Russian wheat exports could create additional opportunities for Kazakhstan to expand supplies to Central Asia and China. However, the strengthening ruble and declining Russian export profitability could lead to increased pressure on Kazakhstan’s market. Russian suppliers may enter Kazakhstan’s domestic market with more competitive prices, limiting price growth for local grain.
Russia’s market remains uncertain, as factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, export quotas, and political decisions on tariffs could significantly impact future conditions. This could either open new opportunities for Kazakh wheat or intensify competition with cheaper Russian grain.

Key Takeaways & Recommendations
✅ Kazakhstan’s grain market is stable, but without major growth potential. Producers are advised to sell reserves strategically to avoid potential losses if prices decline further.
✅ The oilseed market is showing positive dynamics, particularly in flax and safflower. Continued export demand could sustain these prices.
✅ Kazakh agricultural producers should monitor the exchange rate and global market trends. The devaluation of the tenge and increased export demand could change the market situation.
✅ Russia’s market poses both risks and opportunities. Kazakh producers must be ready for stronger competition from Russian suppliers while also looking for potential export advantages.
Currently, Kazakhstan’s agricultural market remains in a phase of moderate stability. However, external factors, such as global grain and oilseed demand, currency fluctuations, and government policies, could shift the balance.