14.03.2025, 13:25
Global Corn Exports in the 2024/25 Season: USDA Lowers Forecast
Global corn exports are expected to decline, mainly due to lower shipments from Brazil
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its global corn export forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) in its March report, lowering it to 186.36 million tons. This is below the February forecast (189.23 million tons) and significantly lower than the current season’s figure (193.56 million tons).
The primary reason for this adjustment is a downward revision in Brazil’s export expectations. The USDA reduced the country’s projected shipments by 2 million tons to 44 million tons. However, even with this reduction, Brazil remains a key player in the global market, considering that its exports in the 2023/24 season reached 38.3 million tons.
Additionally, Brazil’s beginning stocks of corn were revised downward by 1.4 million tons to 7.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the production forecast remains unchanged at 126 million tons. At the same time, USDA analysts raised their expectations for domestic consumption in Brazil by 0.5 million tons to 88 million tons, reflecting the growing demand within the country.
The overall global corn production estimate for 2024/25 MY was slightly increased. While analysts expected 1.212 billion tons in February, the new forecast is now 1.214 billion tons. However, global consumption is also projected to grow, reaching 1.239 billion tons (compared to 1.237 billion tons in February). As a result, global ending stocks have been reduced to 288.94 million tons from 290.31 million tons in the previous forecast.
These new USDA data suggest a tightening supply-demand balance in the global corn market. The decline in export and stock forecasts, combined with stable production and rising consumption, could influence price dynamics and reshape global supply structures in the coming season.
🔑 Key Takeaways:
🔹 Global corn exports are expected to decline, mainly due to lower shipments from Brazil.
🔹 Global production has slightly increased, but demand is growing faster, creating market pressure.
🔹 Stocks are decreasing, which could affect prices and trade flows.