New IGC Forecast: Record Soybean Crop, Corn Downturn

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), the global grains and oilseeds market is showing mixed trends. Despite increased production and trade in certain crops, the overall outlook remains tense due to declining stocks, price volatility, and unstable demand.

Grains
The global grain production forecast (wheat and coarse grains) for the 2024/25 season has been raised by 4 million tons to 2,306 million tons. However, this still falls short of last year’s record. Corn is the main contributor to the decrease. With lower beginning stocks and rising consumption, ending stocks are expected to fall by 5% year-on-year to 577 million tons.
In contrast, global grain trade is declining: a 9% annual drop is forecast, including significant reductions in wheat and corn shipments.
Looking ahead to the 2025/26 season, balance recovery is expected: production may increase by 3% thanks to higher yields of corn, wheat, and barley. Total supply is projected to grow by 1%, despite low opening reserves. Consumption will also rise, primarily driven by feed and industrial sectors. For the first time in three years, stocks may grow slightly, especially among major exporters.

Soybeans
In the 2024/25 season, global soybean output will reach an all-time high, driven by strong performance in the U.S. and Brazil. Production is 22 million tons higher than last year, supporting increased consumption, stock accumulation, and expanded trade.
In 2025/26, the trend will continue, with production potentially setting another record amid rising demand across food, feed, and industrial segments. Brazil will retain its leadership, accounting for two-thirds of global exports. Soybean trade will grow by another 2%.

Rice
India’s removal of export restrictions on 100% broken rice has boosted demand. The trade volume for 2025 has been revised upward to a record 58 million tons.
In 2025/26, further production growth is expected due to expanded planting areas and favorable harvests. Population growth in Asia and Africa will support consumption, while trade may reach a new peak of 59 million tons. India will remain the top exporter.

Peas
Following a production decline last year, a rebound is possible in 2025/26, primarily due to Russia. A partial recovery in domestic demand is also anticipated.
However, after a decline in trade in 2025 due to reduced interest in South Asia, the market is likely to remain stable in the near term.

Prices: Volatility Persists
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell 2% compared to February. Key changes:
• Wheat: -1%, due to lower quotations in North America and Australia
• Corn: -4%, amid concerns over trade policies and futures pressure
• Rice: -3%, reflecting oversupply and weak demand
• Soybeans: +1%, with South American price gains offsetting declines in the U.S.
Despite positive trends in certain crops, the market remains sensitive to external factors and requires a flexible approach. Producers and traders should account for heightened price and logistical risks in the near term.