Russian Wheat Exports in April May Drop Threefold

According to forecasts by analysts from Rusagrotrans JSC, Russia's wheat export volumes in April may total around 1.5–1.6 million tonnes — nearly three times lower than the figures for the same period last year. Experts attribute this to a number of factors, including falling prices, weakening export demand, and limited purchasing activity.

As the company notes, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content continued to decline last week. The April delivery price dropped to $252 per tonne (FOB), losing another $2 over the week.
The domestic market shows a similar trend. Despite a slight increase in prices at deep-water ports, buyer activity remains low. The price of fourth-class wheat with 12.5% protein in Black Sea ports fluctuates in the range of 17,800–18,000 rubles per tonne excluding VAT, which is 150 rubles higher than the previous week. In shallow water areas, the price stands at 16,300–16,500 rubles per tonne.

A price increase was also recorded for CPT Novorossiysk under rail delivery — by the end of the reporting week, prices reached 18,500–18,900 rubles per tonne, up about 300 rubles.

The export situation remains challenging. Market participants are cautious about the outlook for the coming weeks, while price volatility and weak demand continue to pressure shipment dynamics.

Key Takeaways:
• Export volumes may decline nearly threefold — to 1.5–1.6 million tonnes compared to April last year.
• Prices continue to fall: wheat with 12.5% protein content has dropped to $252/tonne (FOB).
• Demand remains weak, despite rising domestic prices: buyer activity is low both in ports and shallow-water regions.