Trump's Trade War: Challenges and New Horizons for Agricultural Logistics

The trade policy initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump continues to reshape the configuration of global trade flows. New tariffs and restrictions are creating both obstacles and unexpected opportunities for global logistics and maritime shipping. This was reported by the press service of GLOBAL OCEAN LINK, citing the opinion of its Commercial Director, Volodymyr Huz, in early April.

According to the expert, the introduction of trade barriers—despite the pressure on consumers and businesses—may paradoxically increase demand for maritime transport services. This is due to the need to restructure supply routes and adapt to new conditions. However, Huz noted that such conclusions should still be regarded as preliminary observations from the logistics sector and require further confirmation.
The situation in financial markets already reflects the consequences: the shares of the largest players in international trade are showing a decline. The capitalization of leading shipping companies has fallen by more than 10%. The reason, Huz explained, may be a reduction in global trade volumes due to new restrictions, which is triggering price increases and further slowing economic activity.

The expert paid particular attention to the key trade route China–USA, which has come under pressure due to intensified tariff policies. In his opinion, logistics operators will have to look for alternative directions, such as the European market, to minimize losses.

At the same time, Huz sees potential for Ukraine in these changes. He noted that in a situation where many countries are facing tariffs of 60%, Ukrainian goods are taxed at only 10%, whereas the rate for the EU is 20%. This difference could become a competitive advantage for Ukrainian value-added products competing with European goods in the U.S. market. “If the 10% difference plays its part, it may boost our exports to America,” the expert believes. However, he emphasized that the real impact of these factors will manifest only over time, as the market adapts.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's trade policy is having a limited but tangible impact on Kazakhstan. The U.S. has imposed 27% tariffs on certain Kazakhstani goods, such as phosphorus and wheat gluten, affecting only 4.8% of exports to America ($95.2 million out of $1.97 billion in 2024). Major exports—oil, uranium, and metals—remain on the exemption list, which softens the blow. Although the U.S. is not a major trade partner (accounting for 2.4% of exports and 3.4% of imports), rising import prices due to global restrictions may affect consumers.

The redistribution of trade flows forces logistics to orient toward Europe via the Middle Corridor, requiring investment. The agricultural sector retains opportunities in the U.S. market thanks to exemptions for raw materials, but the overall economic effect remains limited. Kazakhstan should monitor indirect risks such as fluctuations in raw material prices.
Thus, Trump’s trade policy poses serious challenges for agricultural logistics, while simultaneously opening up prospects for those ready to adapt quickly.