Sovecon Raises Wheat Production Forecast in Russia Amid Improved Winter Crop Conditions

The analytical company Sovecon has revised its forecast for wheat production in Russia for 2025, increasing the expected volume by 1.1 million tons, to 79.7 million tons. The adjustment is attributed to better-than-expected conditions of winter crops.

According to Rosgidromet, only 5% of winter wheat plantings were in poor or very poor condition as of March 2025, a significant improvement compared to 37.1% in November 2024. Against this backdrop, the forecast for winter wheat production has been raised from 50.7 million tons to 52.2 million tons, reflecting expectations of higher yields and fewer winter losses.

Conversely, the forecast for spring wheat has been slightly reduced — from 27.9 million tons to 27.5 million tons — due to anticipated reductions in planted area.

Despite the upward revision, the projected wheat harvest remains the lowest since 2021, when Russia collected 76 million tons. In comparison, the 2024 harvest totaled 82.6 million tons.

Experts also emphasize weather-related risks. While March brought favorable conditions for crop growth, overall field conditions are still rated below average. Furthermore, significant precipitation is not expected in most regions of the country in the coming weeks, potentially exacerbating soil moisture deficits and impacting early-stage wheat development.

🔑 Key Takeaways:
🔹 Wheat production forecast raised to 79.7 million tons due to improved winter crop conditions.
🔹 Share of winter wheat in poor condition drops to 5%, down from 37.1% in November 2024.
🔹 Despite the higher forecast, the crop may still be the smallest since 2021 due to ongoing weather risks.