Sowing season 2026 in Central Asia begins amid declining water reserves

Countries of Central Asia are entering the 2026 vegetation period under conditions of reduced water availability.

According to data from the 92nd meeting of the Interstate Coordination Water Management Commission held in Dushanbe, water volumes in the basins of the region’s largest rivers were significantly lower than last year’s levels.

The most significant decline is observed in the Amu Darya basin. According to the Ferghana news agency, while in February 2025 the water level was 101.8% of the long-term average, as of February 11, 2026 it had decreased to 66.8%. This led to a reduction in water reserves in key reservoirs, including the Tuyamuyun hydro complex, where the volume of water decreased year-on-year by more than 600 million cubic meters.

The shortage of water resources has also affected the timing of leaching irrigation in the lower reaches of the river. This season it began only on February 10, whereas last year it started on December 15. For the cotton-growing regions of Khorezm and Karakalpakstan, such delays may lead to increased soil salinity and lower crop yields.

During the non-vegetation period, only 935 million cubic meters of water were delivered to the Amu Darya delta and the Aral Sea region, compared with the planned 1,400 million cubic meters.

The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains relatively more stable, although inflow here has also been below average.

With an average level of 11.8 billion cubic meters, the actual inflow amounted to about 10.3 billion cubic meters, or 87% of the norm. As a result, water reserves in the Naryn–Syr Darya cascade reservoirs decreased by 2.5 billion cubic meters compared to the previous year.

Uzbekistan remains the largest consumer of water resources in the region. For the vegetation period, more than 3.3 billion cubic meters of water from the Syr Darya have been allocated to the country. The remaining volumes are distributed among Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Experts also cite the construction of a major irrigation project in Afghanistan — the Qosh Tepa canal — as an additional risk factor. After completion, the canal, approximately 285 km long, will be able to divert up to 20% of the Amu Darya flow to irrigate about 550 thousand hectares of agricultural land.

According to the Eurasian Development Bank, the combined impact of climate change, growing water consumption and new irrigation projects could lead to a chronic shortage of water resources in Central Asia by 2028–2029.