USDA raises estimates for global wheat production and exports

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its April report, once again increased its estimate for global wheat production for the 2025–2026 marketing year.

According to updated data, global wheat production is now estimated at 844.1 million tons, compared to 842.1 million tons a month earlier.

The revision is attributed to adjustments in several regions. In particular, the forecast for the European Union has been raised by 1.1 million tons to 145.1 million tons, while Russia’s production estimate increased by 800 thousand tons to 90.3 million tons.

At the same time, USDA raised its global wheat export forecast by 300 thousand tons to 221.9 million tons.

Export growth is expected across several countries. Argentina’s export forecast has been increased by 500 thousand tons to 19.5 million tons, while Kazakhstan’s forecast has been raised by the same amount to 11 million tons. Russia’s exports are expected to grow by 1 million tons to 44.5 million tons.

Meanwhile, export estimates have been lowered for some countries. Australia’s forecast has been reduced by 500 thousand tons to 26.5 million tons, and Ukraine’s by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons.

The global wheat import forecast has been revised downward by 399 thousand tons to 217.6 million tons.

Adjustments were also made for individual countries. Vietnam is expected to increase imports by 700 thousand tons to 7.3 million tons, while Pakistan will reduce imports to 10 thousand tons (down 490 thousand tons month-on-month).

Global wheat consumption has also been revised downward to 815.8 million tons from 820.6 million tons, mainly due to reduced use for seed and feed purposes.

At the same time, global wheat stocks have been increased by 6.161 million tons to 283.1 million tons, marking the highest level in the past four seasons.