22.04.2025, 15:26

Sell or Wait? Updated Recommendations for Farmers and Traders



According to the Research Bureau "Grains and Oilseeds. Kazakhstan", the country is experiencing a relative price equilibrium in the grain and oilseed markets. Although there have been no sharp price fluctuations, analysts urge farmers and traders to act selectively and respond to market signals for each specific crop.

Grains: Emphasis on Holding and Moderate Sales
Prices for third-class soft wheat with high gluten content (28% and above) remain the most stable. In this segment, analysts recommend temporarily suspending sales, anticipating a potential price increase up to 145 KZT/kg.

For third-class wheat with lower gluten content (up to 25% and 23%), experts advise moderate sales, as the growth potential is limited: the maximum expected price levels are 95 KZT/kg and 85 KZT/kg, respectively.

Fourth-class wheat also remains stable, with current prices not indicating significant movement — sales can be made as demand arises.
Fifth-class wheat showed a slight decline of 1 KZT/kg. However, the recommendation remains unchanged — sell moderately. The market continues to show strong interest from importers in non-classified and fifth-class wheat, although available volumes are minimal.

Barley of the second class is priced at 89 KZT/kg. Here, analysts advise pausing sales due to possible price corrections.

Durum wheat is a different case. For lots with protein content of 14% or more, and especially those with 15%+, experts confidently recommend selling. These segments show strong export interest, with prices reaching 110–130 KZT/kg.

Oilseeds and Pulses
The oilseed market also shows price stability. Most traders have taken a wait-and-see approach, especially as flax has become nearly impossible to acquire domestically. Given the current price of 260 KZT/kg, analysts recommend halting flax sales for now.

A similar strategy is suggested for sunflower — with prices at 185 KZT/kg, traders are advised to hold off and wait for a potential increase to 190 KZT/kg.

For rapeseed, soybeans, mustard, and pulses (peas and lentils), moderate sales are considered appropriate. The expected price ceiling for rapeseed is 250 KZT/kg, soybeans — 225 KZT/kg, and mustard — up to 300 KZT/kg.
Lentils, both red and large green varieties, also show favorable price potential.

Safflower stands out in this segment. With prices steady at 138 KZT/kg, analysts believe the optimal strategy is to sell now, considering a potential downward correction.

The market remains stable overall, yet cautious. Experts recommend an adaptive approach: sell gradually based on demand but be ready to capture profits in high-interest export segments.


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