03.11.2025, 09:10
Analysts' recommendations: which crops to hold at the elevator and which to sell now
Hold wheat, sell peas: how Kazakhstan's farmers can maximize profit
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan (MoA RK), as of early November 2025, the agricultural market is showing mixed dynamics, requiring farmers to make balanced decisions on crop sales.
The grain segment remains stable, with no significant price fluctuations over the past week. The key indicator is high-protein Class 3 wheat (28+ gluten), holding at 122 KZT/kg. Analysts recommend halting its sale, anticipating a rise to a potential seasonal maximum of 145 KZT/kg. At the same time, for lower wheat classes (current prices 75-91 KZT/kg) and barley (73 KZT/kg), "as-needed" sales are recommended, indicating sufficient supply and a lack of clear growth drivers in the short term.
A more active situation is developing in the oilseed and pulse market, where a predominantly downward trend is observed. The sharpest decline was shown by soybeans, whose price fell by 74 tenge to reach 140 KZT/kg.
A decrease was also recorded for flax (226 KZT/kg, -5 KZT), rapeseed (226 KZT/kg, -3 KZT), and sunflower (195 KZT/kg, -5 KZT). Despite the price decline and active export demand from China (prices at Alashankou reach $600/tonne), the MoA RK recommends stopping sunflower sales, signaling that the current domestic price of 195 KZT/kg is significantly below the seasonal ceiling (260 KZT/kg).
Strategically important decisions are required in the pulse segment: a "HOLD" recommendation has been given for red and green lentils (150 and 220 KZT/kg, respectively), as their growth potential remains extremely high—up to 265 and 450 KZT/kg. In contrast, for yellow peas (100 KZT/kg), a "SELL" recommendation is advised, indicating unfavorable prospects and the expediency of fixing profits at current levels.
Thus, the current market conjuncture favors a wait-and-see position for high-quality assets (premium wheat, lentils, sunflower) while simultaneously pushing for the sale of crops with less obvious growth potential, such as peas and feed grain.
