Russian Grain Exports in January: Market Concentration and Shrinking Geography

The first three weeks of January showed a significant decline in activity on the Russian grain export market. According to the latest monitoring data from the Russian Grain Union (RGU), from January 1 to 20, the volume of shipments of key crops fell by one-third compared to the previous year, totaling just over 1.3 million tons. For comparison, during the same period in 2025, this figure approached 2 million tons.

There is a trend towards a narrowing of the range of exported products. While a year ago Russia supplied up to 20 different types of crop products to foreign markets, this January their number dropped to nine.

Dynamics by key crops:

• Wheat: down 21.1% (1.159 million tons shipped).

• Corn: fell by 58.4% (to 101 thousand tons).

• Barley: the sharpest decline — 5.3 times, only 48.4 thousand tons.

The geography of wheat exports is also shrinking: the number of buyer countries has more than halved — from 28 to 12. RGU analysts note that this trend is stable and has been observed since last season.

Egypt remains the leading buyer (328 thousand tons), despite a slight decrease in volumes. Turkey ranks second, showing an impressive growth of 5.8 times (up to 204 thousand tons). Sudan closes the top three with 125 thousand tons, whereas in the previous season it did not purchase Russian grain. Among new promising directions are Morocco and Angola, where, despite strong competition, 30 thousand tons of wheat were delivered to each.

In the corn and barley segment, the situation is even more concentrated. Corn is mainly purchased by Iran and Turkey, while barley is distributed between Israel, Turkey, and Iran, with deliveries to Iran almost halved.

January 2026 marked a five-year low in the number of active market participants. The number of exporting companies decreased from 37 to 16. At the same time, the number of ports used also decreased — exports went through 12 locations compared to 23 last year.

• Novorossiysk remains the main “window” to the market, increasing transshipment by 22.6%.

• Rostov-on-Don and Astrakhan show significant declines — 2.5 and 2 times, respectively.

• Raid transshipment has almost stopped, decreasing 7.5 times.

Russian grain exports at the beginning of the year are characterized by high concentration. The market is narrowing to the largest players and port hubs, and the geography of deliveries is shifting towards a few key partners, despite attempts to enter new African countries.