Grain and Oilseeds Market: Is It Worth Selling Now?

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, together with the Research Bureau "Grain and Oilseeds. Kazakhstan," has published new recommendations on the grain and oilseed market. According to the report, grain prices in the country remain stable, while the oilseeds and legumes segment shows mixed trends.

Situation in the Grain Market
The price of 3rd-grade wheat has remained unchanged: high-quality grain (28% gluten and above) holds at 125 KZT/kg. However, analysts recommend refraining from sales, as the potential for growth to 145 KZT/kg remains. For lower-quality batches (up to 25% gluten), the average price is 81 KZT/kg, with a possible increase to 95 KZT/kg.
Similar recommendations apply to other wheat categories: 4th-grade (71 KZT/kg) and 5th-grade (60 KZT/kg) – selling should be done as needed.
The barley market also shows no changes, maintaining 73 KZT/kg. Experts recommend holding off on sales, as there is a possibility of an increase to 85 KZT/kg.
The durum wheat market presents a different scenario: with a protein content of 14% or higher, the price reaches 85 KZT/kg, and with 15% or higher – 102 KZT/kg. For these positions, recommendations suggest immediate sales, as no further price increase is expected in the near future.

Price Dynamics in Oilseeds and Legumes
Among oilseeds, flax has shown significant growth, increasing by 4 KZT/kg to 224 KZT/kg. Given this, specialists advise halting sales for now, as the maximum growth potential is estimated at 250 KZT/kg.
Sunflower prices remain at 173 KZT/kg, and rapeseed at 220 KZT/kg. Analysts recommend stopping sunflower sales, while rapeseed should be sold only if necessary, especially considering that the possible lower limit is 180 KZT/kg.
Safflower remains at 138 KZT/kg, and analysts suggest entering the market with sales, as there is no significant growth potential.
The mustard market has shown an unusual trend: prices have dropped sharply by 38 KZT/kg, now standing at 177 KZT/kg. However, the expected price range for the coming months is 200-300 KZT/kg.
Among legumes, noticeable growth has been recorded for peas (+30 KZT/kg to 122 KZT/kg) and red lentils (+19 KZT/kg to 217 KZT/kg). Remarkably, pea prices have exceeded the predicted maximum.
Green lentils showed the highest increase – +32 KZT/kg, reaching 395 KZT/kg. The potential for further growth is estimated at 450 KZT/kg, but current trends require close monitoring.

Export Benchmarks
According to traders, export prices for flax to China (DAP Alashankou) are $520 per ton, sunflower is traded in the range of $470–500 per ton, and safflower at $470–490 per ton. These indicators remain crucial for farmers’ and traders’ strategies.

Conclusions and Recommendations
The grain market in Kazakhstan does not show sharp price fluctuations, but positive trends are observed in the oilseeds and legumes segment.
Experts' key recommendations:
🔹 High-quality wheat and barley – hold off on sales, price growth is expected.
🔹 Durum wheat – sell immediately, no further price increase is forecasted.
🔹 Flax and sunflower – further price increases are possible, hold off on sales.
🔹 Safflower – selling is recommended.
🔹 Mustard – despite the sharp drop, growth potential remains.
🔹 Peas and lentils – demand supports price growth; selling can be done as needed.
In the current environment, the key factor remains balancing between waiting for better prices and fulfilling contractual obligations.