No Rain Again? What Summer Holds for Agriculture

Farmers in Kazakhstan have already faced alarming weather conditions in the spring of 2025: a sharp moisture deficit, prolonged dry winds, and rapid soil dehydration. Similar patterns are also unfolding in several European countries. According to analysts at agrarheute.com, this summer may prove to be even more extreme.

Spring 2025: Moisture Shortage and Warning Signs
European climate scientists note that spring weather is mirroring the anomalies observed last year. By April, soils across many regions were already critically dry, and long-term forecasts show little promise of relief. Models from the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest that summer months—especially July and August—are highly likely to be warmer than average.
This forecast is reinforced by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), whose models signal elevated temperatures across Central Europe. Meanwhile, Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service assesses a 70–100 % probability that summer 2025 will be warmer than the reference period from 1993 to 2016.
For farmers, these projections are deeply concerning.

Climate Drivers Amplifying Drought
Among the primary factors likely to exacerbate dry conditions, experts identify three critical elements:
• Dominance of Anticyclones – The current positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has created persistent high-pressure systems over Central Europe, leading to stable yet extremely dry weather.
• Warm Sea Surfaces – Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean exceed normal levels, amplifying heat waves and weather variability.
• Parched Soils – By the start of summer, soils are already moisture-deficient. This increases evaporation rates, particularly after infrequent thunderstorms, leading to renewed desiccation.
These interacting factors create a feedback loop: the drier the soil becomes, the more moisture it loses to sunlight, further stressing plant systems.

Agricultural Risks: From Fields to Fodder
The lack of spring rains is already affecting seedling emergence. This is especially critical for crops that require sufficient moisture during their early growth stages. Without adaptive practices such as reduced tillage, surface mulching, and selection of drought‑resistant varieties, farmers risk significantly lowered yields.
Livestock producers are equally alarmed. The reduced rainfall in spring and early summer directly limits both the volume and quality of forage. The first cut—usually the most bountiful—may turn out meager this year. This raises concerns of a repeat of the 2022 scenario when extreme heat and drought halted regrowth of pasture after the first harvest.