Will the price of sunflower oil rise to 2,000 tenge per liter

Since 2023, Kazakhstan has imposed an export duty on sunflower seeds in the amount of 100 euros per ton. The measure was introduced to support domestic oilseed processing. Authorities justify its necessity by the limited raw material base: while processing capacity has reached 4.7 million tons, the gross sunflower harvest in 2025 amounted to about 2.5 million tons.

At the same time, some farmers oppose the duty. In their view, under free export conditions they could sell raw materials at higher prices than those offered by domestic processors.

The search for a balance between the interests of producers and processing enterprises continues. Earlier, the government stated that the current mechanism contributes to increased exports of finished products. Following the last season, sunflower oil exports brought Kazakhstan $837 million, and in the current year revenues are expected to exceed $1 billion.

However, the Agency for Protection and Development of Competition has proposed a gradual reduction of the duty. The agency notes that export growth is largely driven by primary processed goods. This was reported on February 12 in the Mazhilis by deputy Nurzhan Ashimbetov.

Industry representatives warn of possible consequences of such a move. In their opinion, lowering the duty may reduce the utilization of oil plants, which in turn could affect prices of finished products on the domestic market.

The National Association of Oilseed Processors recalled that under a memorandum with state authorities, the wholesale price of sunflower oil for the domestic market is kept at no more than 730 tenge per liter. Price stability was achieved through increased production: by the end of 2025, output reached a record 752 thousand tons, which is 2.3 times higher than in 2021.

At the same time, processors note that if plant utilization declines, prices may rise. Preliminary estimates do not rule out a scenario in which the cost could approach 2,000 tenge per liter.