Prices, Quality, Forecast: What to Know About the New Wheat Harvest in Kazakhstan

Farmers in the southern regions of Kazakhstan are actively harvesting winter wheat. The first batches of the new crop are entering the market at a price of 125,000-130,000 tenge per ton on an ex-farm basis (excluding VAT). Experts note the high quality of the grain, despite some weather challenges, and are optimistic about the harvest prospects in the northern regions of the country.

According to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the analytics department at the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, the harvesting campaign in the southern regions of the republic is in full swing. Despite the fact that the May heat had a certain impact on the crops, the quality of the harvested wheat is not a cause for concern.

According to the expert, the average yield of winter wheat currently ranges from 0.9 to 1.3 tons per hectare (9-13 centners/ha). At the same time, the quality indicators of the grain are pleasing to farmers: the gluten content exceeds 30%, and the Gluten Deformation Index (IDK) is in the range of 70-75 units, which indicates high baking potential. The only drawback is the low specific weight of the grain, which is 700-710 g/l.

Price Stability in the Domestic Market
The analyst noted that over the past week, the price situation in the domestic grain market of Kazakhstan remained stable. The established balance of supply and demand is keeping prices from sharp fluctuations.
This is also confirmed by data from the ETS commodity exchange. During the reporting period, only one transaction was recorded for the sale of 3rd class wheat with 25% gluten. A lot of 300 tons was sold at a price of 102,000 tenge per ton (including 12% VAT) on EXW (ex-works) terms from a linear elevator.
Export prices for Kazakh grain also remained unchanged, and the pace of shipments corresponds to the seasonal norms.

Hope for the North: Rains Inspire Optimism
The expert paid special attention to the prospects for the 2025 harvest in the northern regions of the country, which are the main breadbasket of Kazakhstan. Last week, heavy thunderstorms occurred here, turning into downpours and hail in some places. In some areas, the amount of precipitation reached 18 to 60 mm, which is a monthly, and in some cases, a one-and-a-half-month norm.

According to Yevgeny Karabanov, these rains have significantly replenished the soil moisture reserves, creating favorable conditions for the active vegetation of spring crops. Weather forecasters' predictions are also encouraging: this week, rainy weather with thunderstorms is again expected in the northern regions.

In conclusion, the representative of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan expressed cautious optimism. He concluded that if drought and outbreaks of fungal diseases can be avoided in July, the current weather conditions are creating all the prerequisites for a good grain harvest in the key agricultural regions of the country.