Kazakhstan’s Wheat Exports Set to Reach Record 11.45 Million Tons

Kazakhstan is on track to set an all-time record for wheat exports in the current agricultural season. According to updated estimates from analysts, the total volume of exports—including wheat delivered as flour (both food-grade and feed-grade, converted into grain equivalent)—is projected to reach 11.45 million tons. This was reported by Yevgeny Karabanov, founder of the “Severnoye Zerno” Group and head of the Analytical Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.

Previously, the forecast stood at 11.2 million tons, but it has been revised upward based on expected export dynamics for the remaining three months of the season. This volume would mark the highest level in the history of Kazakhstan's grain exports.

At the same time, the forecast for ending stocks has been adjusted. Analysts estimate that approximately 1.95 million tons of wheat will remain on the domestic market at the end of the season. Experts consider this level optimal, ensuring food security without creating surplus pressure.

Although there has been a slight decline in exports of wheat flour, the overall volume of wheat exports in grain equivalent has shown solid growth. Over the first nine months of the 2024/25 marketing year, shipments increased by 41% compared to the same period last year, reaching 9.145 million tons.

This growth has been driven by increases in both grain and feed flour exports. The following countries have significantly expanded their purchases:
• Uzbekistan: +30%
• Tajikistan: +24%
• China: 1.75 times more, mainly due to feed flour imports
• Kyrgyzstan: 3.8 times more

Meanwhile, some countries have reduced their imports. Afghanistan decreased purchases by 5.5%, primarily due to a drop in food-grade flour imports. Turkmenistan cut total imports by 28%, driven by a sharp reduction in wheat imports, despite more than doubling flour imports.