02.04.2025, 14:13
Russian Wheat Exports in March Exceed Forecast but Lag Behind Last Year’s Record
In March, Russia exported 1.85 million tons of wheat — more than expected but nearly three times less than in 2024
According to the analytical center of JSC Rusagrotrans, Russia’s wheat exports in March 2025 are estimated at 1.85 million tons. This figure surpasses the earlier forecast, which ranged between 1.5–1.6 million tons. The revision of the estimate is attributed to new contracts signed in the second half of the month, driven by a rise in export prices.
As of March 28, approximately 1.5 million tons of wheat had already been shipped from Russia. Nevertheless, even with the upward revision, the export volumes remain significantly below the results of the same period last year. In March 2024, the country exported a record 4.74 million tons of wheat.
Meanwhile, the export market is showing mixed price trends. According to Rusagrotrans, the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content on FOB terms for April delivery dropped by $1 last week to $254 per ton. This came after a slight increase the previous week.
Domestic grain prices have also shown an upward trend. In deep-sea ports, the price of 4th class wheat with 12.5% protein increased by 200 rubles to 17,700–17,800 RUB/ton (excluding VAT), with some transactions reaching 18,000 RUB/ton. In shallow water ports, the price rose by around 100 rubles to 16,300–16,500 RUB/ton.
Analysts note that despite some price growth, purchasing activity remains low. This may be due to uncertain market expectations and continued volatility in the external economic environment.
Key takeaways:
• In March, Russia exported 1.85 million tons of wheat — more than expected but nearly three times less than in 2024.
• The export growth was driven by new deals amid rising prices in the second half of the month.
• Despite higher port prices, purchasing activity remains weak.
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