21.05.2026, 00:32
FAO forecasts Central Asia’s agricultural trade deficit to nearly triple by 2034
Population growth will become one of the key drivers behind rising food imports
Central Asia’s trade deficit in agri-food products could nearly triple by 2034. At the same time, countries in the region are expected to continue increasing food imports amid population growth and rising consumption. The data was presented in a regional report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), according to Asia Plus.
According to FAO’s forecast for 2025–2034, agricultural production in Europe and Central Asia will continue to grow, although at a moderate pace. In Central Asia, agri-food imports are expected to increase by nearly 3% annually, while exports are projected to decline by about 1% per year.
FAO experts expect rising demand for key food products, including meat, dairy products, and wheat. Wheat, poultry meat, beef, and dairy products are listed among the region’s main imported goods. According to FAO estimates, wheat imports will grow by an average of 2.6% annually, poultry imports by 2.5%, and beef imports by 3.9%.
The report also highlights significant population growth in Central Asia. By 2034, the region’s population is projected to increase by 14.5%, while Europe’s population is expected to decline by 1.1% over the same period.
In addition, steady economic growth is anticipated across the region. FAO forecasts that GDP per capita in Central Asia will increase by 2.3% annually. For comparison, the average growth rate across Europe and Central Asia is expected to be 1.5% per year. By 2034, GDP per capita in Central Asia is projected to reach $6,838, compared to $17,326 in Eastern Europe and $48,118 in Western Europe.
FAO also forecasts a 10.4% increase in protein consumption in Central Asia by 2034. Calories derived from animal products are expected to rise by 16%. Poultry meat will account for nearly two-thirds of the increase in meat consumption. According to the organization, meat consumption in Central Asia will reach around 30 kg per person annually by 2034. In Eastern Europe, the figure is expected to reach 49 kg, while in Western Europe it will rise to 51 kg.
