IKAR Assesses Russia's Wheat Export Potential: Forecasts for 2025–2026

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has released its forecasts for Russian wheat exports in the upcoming 2025–2026 agricultural season. According to analysts, export volumes could range between 35 and 43 million tons, depending on different development scenarios.
In the baseline scenario, exports are projected to reach 39 million tons. If the situation develops unfavorably, the volume may decrease to 35 million tons. Under a positive scenario, exports could remain at the current season’s level of 43 million tons. Additionally, experts anticipate that new Russian regions will contribute approximately 2.5 million tons to total exports.
Current Season Trends
In 2024, total wheat production amounted to 82.4 million tons. The export potential for the 2024–2025 season is estimated at 43 million tons. By mid-February, 32.5 million tons had already been shipped, slightly less than the 34.3 million tons exported during the same period last year. The remaining volume for export stands at 10.5 million tons, significantly lower than the 20 million tons left to be exported in the previous year.
From mid-February to the end of June, the Russian government has set a tariff quota of 10.6 million tons for wheat and meslin exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union. No export quotas have been established for barley, rye, or corn during this period.
Wheat Market: Challenges and Opportunities
According to Dmitry Rylko, General Director of IKAR, wheat exports were at record levels until mid-January, even surpassing last season’s figures. However, total grain exports have recently declined due to poor barley and corn harvests. As a result, the remaining wheat export potential is now among the lowest in recent years.
The primary regions expected to contribute to wheat shipments until the end of the current season are the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts. Their combined export volume is projected at around 6 million tons, half of last year’s 12.7 million tons. The Volga region is expected to export approximately 1.2 million tons, while the Central Federal District will contribute around 500,000 tons.
Forecasts for the Next Season
Analysts estimate that wheat reserves at the beginning of the next season (July 1, 2025) will amount to 13.4 million tons. By the end of the season (June 30, 2026), stocks are expected to range between 12 and 13 million tons, depending on the scenario.
The forecast for wheat production in 2025 has recently been revised downward. According to estimates, total production may range from 77 to 87 million tons, depending on weather and economic factors.
Previously, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut estimated Russia’s total grain export potential for the 2024–2025 season at 57 million tons but did not specify how much of that would be wheat. For comparison, Russia exported 72 million tons of grain in the 2023–2024 season, including 54.1 million tons of wheat.
Despite potential fluctuations in export volumes, Russia’s wheat market remains strong. Factors such as crop yields, domestic demand, and government policies will play a key role in determining export trends for the upcoming season.
Key Takeaways:
✅ Forecast for 2025–2026: Wheat exports could range from 35 to 43 million tons, depending on the scenario.
📉 Export Slowdown: Early-season shipments hit record highs but have since declined due to weak barley and corn harvests.
🌾 Market Outlook: Wheat reserves are expected to decrease, but Russia remains a key global grain exporter.