📌 Kazakhstan's 2024 Harvest: Forecasts and Export Prospects  

🔹 Kazakhstan expects a high wheat harvest this year, with improved grain quality and reserves of up to 26 million tons.

🔹 Market participants are optimistic due to state support, including possible transportation subsidies to enhance export positions.

🔹 In addition to traditional markets in Central Asia and China, Kazakhstan is considering new export directions, including North Africa and Europe, opening up significant opportunities for the country.

 

Kazakhstan is expecting a good wheat harvest this year, despite the challenging weather conditions that affected the agricultural season in spring and summer. This was reported by Kanat Kobesov, Chairman of the Board of the National Association of Exporters KazGrain. According to him, the harvest volumes will be significant, and the quality of the grain will improve substantially compared to last year.

 

Taking into account the high carryover stocks of food grain, by the end of the harvest campaign, the total grain reserve is expected to be around 25-26 million tons, of which more than 10 million tons will constitute export potential. The main concerns for market participants now are whether Kazakhstan will be able to export these volumes consistently. There are concerns about demand for grain as well as the ability of rail operators to ensure timely transportation.

 

However, traders remain optimistic, considering the government's readiness to support exports, including the discussion of transportation subsidies to enhance the competitiveness of Kazakh wheat in the global market. Recently, there were meetings with Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin, during which key issues of Kazakh grain trade were discussed. Systemic measures are being developed for wheat export, including the involvement of KTZ in organizing transportation.

 

Kazakhstan's main strategy is aimed at traditional markets in Central Asia and China. However, new export routes through the Black Sea and Baltic ports are also being considered, including North Africa. The European Union's imposition of a 95 euro per ton protective tariff on Russian wheat opens up opportunities for Kazakhstan to replace Russia in some of its former markets.

 

Due to the deterioration of wheat quality in many regions of the world this year, including the European Union and Russia, there is expected to be high demand for high-quality Kazakh wheat. This gives market participants reason to expect price increases. For example, while Uzbek buyers are currently offering $200 per ton for wheat at DAP Saryagash, traders are setting starting prices for the new harvest at $230 for 4th grade wheat and $250-260 for 3rd grade wheat.

 

In addition to wheat, there are also significant prospects for barley exports to China. Currently, Chinese buyers are offering $174 per ton of feed grain at DAP Alashankou, but prices are expected to rise to $205-215 in September. It is important to note that Chinese partners, unlike buyers in Central Asia, pay immediately, making trade with China more attractive.

 

As for logistics, with an export potential of 10 million tons per year, KTZ is capable of handling the transportation of 800 thousand - 1 million tons of grain per month. To address potential issues related to uneven demand for rail services by season, operational headquarters have already been established.