USDA Updates Forecast: How Will Grain Production and Export Change in Russia and Kazakhstan?

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its March report, revising forecasts for grain production and export in key producing countries. Specifically, Russia’s expected wheat production for the current agricultural year (July 2024 - June 2025) has been increased by 0.1 million tons to 81.6 million tons. Additionally, the forecast for ending stocks has been raised from 9.74 million to 10.34 million tons.
However, export prospects for Russian wheat have been revised downward. The USDA now estimates them at 45 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons less than in the February forecast.
As for corn, the production forecast for Russia has improved from 13.25 million to 14 million tons, but export estimates remain unchanged at 3.3 million tons. Expected ending stocks for this crop will be 0.91 million tons.
Feed grain production in Russia, according to the updated data, will reach 34.78 million tons, an increase of 0.81 million tons from the previous forecast. The export potential of this segment has also increased: it is now estimated at 6.65 million tons compared to 6.25 million tons last month. Ending stocks have risen to 1.44 million tons.

Changes in Forecasts for the EU, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
The forecast for wheat exports from the European Union has been reduced by 1 million tons to 27 million tons. At the same time, the volume of wheat production in the EU remains unchanged at 121.3 million tons.
According to updated data, Ukraine will harvest 23.4 million tons of wheat, 0.5 million tons more than the previous forecast. However, export expectations remain unchanged at 15.5 million tons, while ending stocks have increased to 1.69 million tons. Corn production in the country has also been revised upward to 26.8 million tons (+0.3 million tons), but the export forecast remains at 22 million tons.
Kazakhstan maintains last month's figures: wheat production is expected at 18.58 million tons, exports at 10 million tons, and ending stocks at 4.22 million tons.

Global Forecasts: Growing Grain Production
The USDA has raised the overall forecast for global wheat production to 797.23 million tons, 3.44 million tons more than in the previous report. Feed grain production has also been revised upward, reaching 1.49574 billion tons (compared to 1.49252 billion tons in the previous forecast). The global corn harvest is now expected to reach 1.21417 billion tons (+1.7 million tons).
It is worth noting that in its calculations, the USDA traditionally does not include data for Crimea and newly incorporated territories of Russia.
Thus, the USDA’s March report indicates an increase in grain production in several countries. However, export prospects for wheat from Russia and the EU have been revised downward. As a result, global markets may see increased competition among major grain suppliers.

🔑 Key Takeaways:
📌 Russia’s wheat production forecast has increased to 81.6 million tons, but exports have been reduced to 45 million tons.
📌 Kazakhstan maintains stable figures: production – 18.58 million tons, exports – 10 million tons.
📌 The global grain market continues to grow, but competition among exporters is intensifying.