Estimates for Russian wheat exports raised for two seasons

The SovEcon analytical center has revised upward its forecasts for Russian wheat exports amid improving market conditions and recovering demand.

According to updated data, the export forecast for the 2025/26 season has been increased by 1.1 million tons to 46.5 million tons, which is 14% higher than the previous year. The estimate for the 2026/27 marketing year has also been raised by 2.1 million tons to 43.8 million tons.

Experts note that the recent rise in wheat prices is driven not only by the closing of short positions by investment funds, but also by growing concerns about the upcoming harvest amid a sharp increase in fertilizer and energy costs. Additional support came from the weakening of the ruble and steady demand from importers. As a result, FOB prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein increased by about $6 to around $240 per ton, the highest level since August 2025.

According to analysts, current price dynamics reflect a shift in market sentiment. After a prolonged period of expectations of a global surplus, market participants have become more sensitive to new risks, while importers have increased their activity. Demand for wheat remains relatively inelastic, which may amplify price movements amid growing uncertainty regarding supply.

An additional factor behind the forecast revision is the increase in the estimate of Russia’s wheat harvest in 2026 to 87.6 million tons from the previous 85.9 million tons.

As noted by SovEcon director Andrey Sizov, the market is gradually adapting to new conditions characterized by rising risks related to weather factors and increasing production costs. Against the backdrop of higher fertilizer costs in Europe and Ukraine, as well as deteriorating weather conditions in the United States, the market’s sensitivity to any supply disruptions is increasing. According to him, global wheat prices are likely to remain supported in the coming months, especially if these risks continue to grow.