03.05.2024, 18:33

Revised forecasts: Russia's grain harvest is expected to be smaller than last year's crop


In the current agricultural season, Russia may face a smaller grain harvest than last year. According to forecasts by industry experts and agrarians, weather conditions in the south of the country, where more than 40% of all grain is grown, have deteriorated significantly. The drought in this region was the main reason for the revision of wheat harvest expectations, despite the fact that export prices for Russian wheat continue to grow, strengthening the country's position on the world market.


The analytical center SovEcon for the first time lowered its forecasts for the current season, estimating the winter wheat harvest at 67.3 million tons, a million tons less than previous estimates. Spring wheat yield estimates remain unchanged at 25.7 million tons.


The reason for the adjustment is unfavorable weather conditions, including precipitation deficits and high temperatures, contributing to the deterioration of soil conditions and crop rotations in key grain-producing regions such as Rostov Region, Krasnodar Krai and Stavropol Krai.


According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, the grain harvest in 2024 is expected to drop to 132 million tons from 144.9 million tons in the previous year, indicating a possible decrease in total agricultural output by almost 3%. In particular, crop production may decrease by 6.5%.


Meanwhile, globally, Russia is increasing its position as a major wheat exporter, with export volumes expected to rise to 52 million tons in the current crop year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which is 1 million tons more than previously forecast.


These changes in cereal production and exports could have a significant impact on the global market, given current trends and weather conditions. At the same time, further development of the situation will depend on climatic conditions in the coming months, especially the amount of precipitation in the southern regions of Russia.