09.06.2025, 08:42
Drought in China: Experts Forecast 5% Decline in Wheat Production
Drought in China: Wheat Production May Drop by 5%, Lowest Since 2018
Wheat production in China could see a significant decline in 2025 due to drought in key agricultural regions. According to a confidential survey of five leading Chinese traders and analysts, the harvest may decrease by approximately 5%, totaling between 133 to 135 million tons. If confirmed, this would mark the lowest yield since 2018, when the country harvested 131 million tons of wheat.
Despite the expected drop from the record 2024 harvest of 140 million tons, experts believe that ample domestic reserves and relatively moderate demand for grain will help mitigate potential consequences and prevent supply shortages on the market. However, analysts note that such a decline is an unwelcome development for the Chinese government, which has been actively working to strengthen the country’s food security. This situation may prompt authorities to reconsider their current import policy.
Geopolitical Risks and a Changing Climate
China has been striving to shield its agricultural supplies from growing geopolitical risks, including unresolved trade tensions with the United States. In March of this year, Beijing imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. wheat, despite low import demand at the time. In fact, wheat imports into China reached a seven-year low in the first four months of 2025, totaling just over 1 million tons.
Nevertheless, increasingly extreme weather conditions require prompt adjustments to supply chains. A relevant example is the situation two years ago, when heavy rains severely damaged wheat crops in China, leading to a record annual import volume of 12 million tons. This year, the impact of drought is most visible in northern China—traditionally the main wheat-producing region. The provinces of Henan, the country’s leading wheat producer, and Shaanxi have been particularly affected.
Divergence in Forecasts
It is worth noting that crop forecasts from international organizations currently differ from those of Chinese traders. The International Grains Council and the U.S. Department of Agriculture still maintain their projections of China’s wheat harvest at 140 million tons or more. These discrepancies highlight the dynamic nature of the situation and the difficulty of accurate forecasting amid changing climate and market conditions.
