Russian Wheat Prices Rise, but Export Profitability Remains Uncertain  

 

Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content, scheduled for January delivery, have reached a two-month high. According to the analytical center "Rusagrotrans," prices increased by $7, reaching approximately $235 per ton FOB. Exporter offers are even higher, around $240 per ton, as reported by agrosearch.kz.

 On international markets, French wheat rose by about $2 over the week, now priced at $242 per ton. German wheat remained steady at approximately $254 per ton, while American wheat decreased by about $5, settling at $244 per ton.

 The domestic market has also responded to external trends. In Russia's deep-water ports, the price of fourth-class wheat with 12.5% protein content increased by approximately 500 rubles, reaching between 17,700 and 18,100 rubles per ton, excluding VAT. This growth is attributed to a reduction in export duties and strengthening global prices. Conversely, in shallow-water ports, prices declined by about 300 rubles, dropping to 15,800 rubles per ton.

 Analysts note that in southern regions, domestic prices have risen following export trends, while central regions and the Volga area have seen little change. In the south, the price of fourth-class wheat with 12.5% protein content, when shipped from elevators, increased by approximately 350 rubles, ranging from 15,700 to 16,500 rubles per ton, excluding VAT. In central regions, prices remained between 15,500 and 16,000 rubles, and in the Volga region, between 15,000 and 15,500 rubles.

 In Siberia, export-quality fourth-class wheat also saw a price increase of about 350 rubles, now ranging from 11,000 to 11,500 rubles per ton, excluding VAT, when shipped from elevators. This rise is supported by the resumption of subsidies for rail transportation both domestically and for export.

 Despite a reduction in export duties, analysts indicate that the profitability of foreign shipments remains low. The duty decreased by approximately 735 rubles; however, increased purchase prices at ports have offset this effect. As a result, export profitability remains negative, limiting foreign sales.

 The forecast for December wheat exports remains unchanged, with expectations of between 3.4 and 3.5 million tons to be shipped. The analytical center estimates that about 1.7 million tons have been dispatched so far.

 

Key Takeaways:

 Export prices for 12.5% protein wheat have risen to $235 per ton FOB, but export profitability remains low due to a strengthening ruble and rising purchase prices.

 The domestic market shows growth in deep-water ports, reaching up to 18,100 rubles per ton, while prices in shallow-water ports have declined.

 In Siberia and southern Russia, demand is increasing, and subsidies for rail transportation are supporting prices for export-quality wheat.